South Asia is home to about 2.1 billion people. The region is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, cyclones, tidal surges, floods, river erosion, landslides, monsoon rains, lightning, tornadoes, dust storms, cold waves, sea level rise etc. The number and intensity of these disasters are increasing due to climate change, which further emphasizes the importance of developing effective weather forecasting systems. However, many countries in the region rely largely on foreign companies providing external technologies and solutions for their weather forecasts. Over the years, this kind of over-dependence has hindered our ability to grow. It reduces our self-reliance, increases the cost of operating and maintaining technology, and limits and discourages regional research and development activities. It is now the need of the hour to reduce this dependence and build the capacity of local institutions and create skilled human resources.
Challenges to the South Asian Weather Forecasting System
The dependence on external technology has led to several serious problems in the weather forecasting system of South Asia. First, most countries rely on commercial technology for advanced weather models, satellite data analysis, and forecasting tools. This is expensive and not sustainable in the long run. Moreover, these models are not always fully compatible with local climatic characteristics, making accurate forecasts almost impossible. Second, almost all countries lack high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure and the opportunity to integrate and analyze data instantly to conduct modern weather modeling. To produce high-resolution weather forecasts, a huge amount of data needs to be analyzed, which is not possible without strong computing power. Third, the lack of information flow and inter-country coordination is weakening the weather forecasting system in South Asia. Most countries do not operate a centralized database for sharing real-time information on meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, and climate. As a result, important information is often delivered late, which is a major obstacle to disaster preparedness. Fourth, the lack of skilled human resources is a major challenge. The number of skilled meteorologists, climatologists, and data analysts in the region is very limited. There is a lack of adequate investment at the public and private levels for international standard research and development. In addition, the lack of cooperation between educational institutions and meteorological agencies is a major obstacle to creating a skilled workforce. Fifth and foremost, the activities of mafia syndicates are also a major threat in many regions. Illegal activities and corruption are almost always observed in the procurement process of equipment in government projects. These syndicates are often more tempted to build low-quality, unnecessary equipment and infrastructure at low prices. Certain syndicates hold everyone hostage in the purchase of foreign technology, foreign travel, and tenders. They manipulate institutions, countries, and generations for their benefit.
Strategies for Increasing Institutional and Human Resource Capacity
To make the weather forecasting system in South Asia more effective and self-reliant, emphasis should be placed on local research and development. If forecast models are developed that are compatible with local climate characteristics, the accuracy of forecasts will increase. For meteorology and oceanography, mathematical models suitable for this region should be prepared. The ability to collect and analyze local meteorological and oceanographic data should be increased. Investment in advanced computing infrastructure is also an important step. If high-powered computing centers are established, it will be easier to analyze large data sets for improved forecasts. At the same time, instant forecast data integration and analysis will be easier through cloud-based platforms. In terms of human resource development, higher education and training in meteorology, oceanography, and forecasting technology should be increased. If research initiatives are strengthened through public-private partnerships, it will be easier to create skilled manpower. Organizations like the National Oceanographic and Maritime Institute (NOAMI), South Asian Meteorological Association (SAMA), and other relevant institutions should be kept functional. Utilizing their experience, skill development training should be provided to produce experts in meteorology and oceanography.
The development of a regional information exchange system is also very important. An effective system of information sharing should be developed among South Asian countries so that real-time meteorological and oceanographic information is easily available. If an integrated meteorological information center can be established through cooperation with SAARC, BIMSTEC, and other regional organizations, the flow of information will increase, and the accuracy of forecasts will improve.
Balancing Self-reliance and Strategic Partnerships
While it is important to reduce dependence on external technology providers, strategic cooperation in using global meteorological organizations such as WMO, ECMWF, and Copernicus data should be enhanced. This should be ensured by making sure that training and higher education are properly utilized. Higher training will enable the development of advanced datasets and the preparation of global forecasts, which will help increase the accuracy of local forecasts. At the same time, the weather forecasting system will be more effective if local models are combined with international forecasting models.
To make South Asia's weather warning system more effective and self-reliant, it is essential to reduce dependence on foreign solution providers (similar to the East India Company model) and external technology. By investing in advanced computing infrastructure, increasing scientific research, and fostering regional cooperation, the region can develop a self-sufficient, efficient, and climate-resilient forecasting system. Additionally, the unproductive mindset that keeps government institutions ineffective must be identified and eliminated. We must play a compassionate and efficient role in enhancing regional capacity.
Most countries worldwide have implemented clear and effective early warning systems for weather disasters such as heatwaves, cyclones, and lightning, using color codes like blue, yellow, red, and orange to protect their populations. In contrast, many nations in the South Asian region issue weather warnings that lack clarity and are often communicated in complex, difficult-to-understand language.
When will the authorities in our country reform the outdated British-era sea and river port-based Tropical Cyclone warning system?
Dr. Mohan Kumar Das: Joint Secretary, South Asian Meteorological Association (SAMA)