Since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, India maintained close ties with the ruling junta. Even as the regime steadily lost control over nearly all areas along the India–Myanmar border, India did not shift its approach. However, things changed dramatically on August 5, following the fall of the Awami League government in Bangladesh after a mass uprising. Until then, India had relied heavily on support from the Hasina government for moving goods through the Chattogram port. But after the regime change, that route no longer seemed guaranteed. So, India refocused on the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. But the junta had no real control over the Kaladan corridor. That area was under the Arakan Army. So, India quietly began building strong ties with them instead.

According to a report published yesterday (April 11) by the International Crisis Group, New Delhi held several rounds of meetings with senior Arakan Army officials after August 5. The deputy commissioner of Mizoram’s Lawngtlai district even crossed the border in secret to meet leaders in Myanmar’s Paletwa township. Mizoram’s Chief Minister and other top state officials also met with Arakan Army representatives in Aizawl. And all this was coordinated with approval from India’s central government.

Back in February 2021, after military chief Min Aung Hlaing staged the coup in Myanmar, India’s initial strategy was to stay close to the new regime in Naypyidaw. The reasoning was simple: border security, regional connectivity, and countering China’s growing influence. India also relied on Myanmar’s successive rulers to crack down on northeastern separatist groups.

The Modi government assumed that the junta would eventually overpower all armed rebel groups. That turned out to be a major miscalculation. The junta quickly began losing ground in the border areas. Yet, India still stuck to its original plan and kept ties with Naypyidaw.

The cities of Paletwa and Sittwe hold huge strategic value under India’s Act East policy. These two towns are central to the India-funded Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.

Back in 2018, India signed a bilateral agreement with Bangladesh that allowed duty-free transport of goods between the Indian mainland and its northeastern states via Chattogram port. That deal temporarily reduced Kaladan’s urgency. Still, the project remained key to India’s broader strategic goals—especially to counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region.

But that equation changed entirely in August 2024. The fall of the Hasina government forced Indian policymakers to rethink everything. They are now unsure whether Bangladesh’s interim government—or any future governement—will continue allowing duty-free transit of goods through the Chattogram port to India’s northeastern states.

Consequently, India turned its attention back to Kaladan. But to move the project forward, cooperation with the Arakan Army became critical—not just for logistics, but also for border security and checking China’s presence in the region.

By September 2024, India was taking visible steps to deepen ties with the Arakan Army. The Lawngtlai Deputy Commissioner, a central government appointee, crossed into Myanmar to assess Kaladan’s progress firsthand. Not long after, Mizoram’s Chief Minister and senior officials met Arakan Army representatives in Aizawl. This also took place with New Delhi’s full backing. Senior officials from India’s Ministry of External Affairs also held meetings with Arakan Army leaders both in Delhi and Aizawl, though none of this was made public.

In November last year, a Reuters report revealed that India had invited several Myanmar anti-junta groups to a seminar in Delhi—including the Arakan Army, and armed groups from Chin and Kachin. The event was hosted by the Indian Council of World Affairs, a think tank linked to India’s foreign ministry. Senior Indian officials attended, making it the first formal engagement between the Indian government and Myanmar’s anti-junta armed groups.

Many believe the information was deliberately leaked—to signal India’s new direction and quietly gauge the junta’s response. According to the International Crisis Group, India had been considering this policy shift since June last year. But after the change of government in Bangladesh on August 5, New Delhi fast-tracked the plan and opened direct lines of communication with the Arakan Army and other armed groups.