The total demand for fertilizer in the country could be around 6.9 million tons in the current fiscal year. Approximately 80 percent of Bangladesh's total fertilizer demand is met through imports. According to the latest information from the Ministry of Agriculture, the current fertilizer stock in government warehouses is about 1.8 million tons. Agricultural experts believe more than this stock is needed to meet the country's immediate needs.

With the Boro and Rabi seasons, the peak periods for food grain production, looming within two months, the need for fertilizers and other essential agricultural inputs is at its highest. These two seasons alone account for over 70 percent of the country's total chemical fertilizer usage. However, the current gas shortage has hampered local fertilizer production, and import complications due to a dollar shortage have further exacerbated the situation. As a result, there is an urgent need to address the fertilizer shortage to ensure a successful Boro and Rabi season.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the demand for fertilizer for the fiscal year 2023-24 was set at 6.8425 million tons. This year, the market may increase slightly to approximately 6.9 million tons. However, in contrast, the stock in government warehouses is only 1.774 million tons. About four-fifths of the total fertilizer demand in the country is met through imports. This year, there are plans to import 9 lakh tons of fertilizer through private initiatives, but due to the dollar shortage, sufficient fertilizer has not yet been imported. Additionally, production at three out of five urea fertilizer factories in the country has been completely halted due to a gas shortage.

The crisis in production and imports has led to a level of uncertainty regarding the supply of essential fertilizers, including urea. With both fertilizer import and production facing shortages, those involved in the sector have become increasingly concerned. They stress that, in light of recent floods, greater focus should be given to Boro production to ensure food security. However, complications with Letters of Credit (LCs) have made fertilizer imports difficult. It is crucial to resolve all procedural complications as quickly as possible to ensure a sufficient supply of fertilizers through imports.

Although officials from the Department of Agriculture state that there are no issues with fertilizer for the current Aman season and that there is still time to prepare for the Boro season, the government will take necessary measures in the meantime. Dr. Nurun Nahar Chowdhury, Additional Secretary of the Fertilizer Wing of the Ministry of Agriculture, told Bonik Barta, "The regular process of fertilizer management is ongoing as usual every year. The import process is also continuing."

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the main fertilizers used in the country are urea, triple super phosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), and muriate of potash (MOP). In the current financial year, the total demand for these four fertilizers has been determined at 5.9 million tons. And nine and a half lakh tons of fertilizer will come from private enterprises. Apart from this, the total demand for boron and other fertilizers can be around 6.9 million tons. And against the demand, so far, the government has 17.74 million tons in stock. Of this, 6 lakh tons are in stock against the demand of 2.7 million tons of urea fertilizer. Compared to the TSP of 7.5 lakh tons, there are 3.25 lakh tons in stock. There is a demand for 1.5 million tons of DSP, but there is a stock of 4.14 lakh tons. The demand for MOP has been determined at nine and a half lakh tons. And the stock is 4.31 lakh tons.

Agricultural economists stress the need to prioritize Boro production due to the significant damage to Aman crops caused by the ongoing floods. Dr. Jahangir Alam, Director of Dhaka School of Economics, emphasizes, "The Boro season, which accounts for 54 percent of the total rice production, is crucial for ensuring food security amidst the flood's impact. To meet this demand, we need to ensure a stock of at least 4 to 4.5 million tons of fertilizer. The import situation has become complicated due to the dollar shortage, and it takes about one and a half to two months to import fertilizers. Therefore, we need to prioritize production and ensure gas supply through rationing to fully activate the five urea fertilizer factories."

In the country, chemical fertilizers are primarily imported through the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) and the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC). BCIC imports all of the urea fertilizer. Both government organizations can import fertilizers at any time of the year. However, private companies can only participate in tenders to import fertilizers during the month of May. It's crucial for all stakeholders to work together and coordinate their efforts to ensure a smooth and continuous supply of fertilizers.

When asked about the issue, Riaz Uddin Ahmed, Executive Secretary of the Bangladesh Fertilizer Association (BFA), told Bonik Barta, "We are set to import 9.5 lakh tons of fertilizer. However, due to outstanding dues to the government, foreign banks are not clearing our import LCs. We hope to receive the dues from the government soon, and once that happens, there will be no complications with imports from November onward."

Urea is the most widely used fertilizer in the country, and its production is also substantial. Because it can be produced using gas, Bangladesh has achieved a higher urea production capacity than other fertilizers. Under the Ministry of Industries, the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) currently oversees five urea fertilizer factories in the country. These are the Ghorashal-Polash Urea Fertilizer Factory in Narsingdi, the Shahjalal Fertilizer Factory in Sylhet, the Chattogram Urea Fertilizer Factory (CUFL), the Jamalpur Jamuna Fertilizer Factory, and the Ashuganj Fertilizer Factory in Brahmanbaria. Due to a gas shortage, production at three of these urea fertilizer factories has been wholly halted for several months.

Officials from the Ministry of Industries say that BCIC supplies all of the urea fertilizer. Currently, BCIC has a stock of about 6 lakh tons of fertilizer. An additional 6 lakh tons will be purchased from the joint venture company Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company (KAFCO), and 1 million tons will be imported from abroad. Beyond this, BCIC aims to produce at least 7.5 lakh tons of fertilizer on its own. However, there are concerns about meeting the production target due to disruptions in gas supply.

Zakia Sultana, Senior Secretary of the Ministry of Industries, told Bonik Barta, "Our factories are ready. However, the gas shortage has been going on since the last Ramadan. We are continuing discussions with the Ministry of Energy to address the gas supply issue. We faced production difficulties last year as well, so this time, we have reduced our production target from 1 million tons to 7.5 lakh tons. Currently, we are not facing any issues with urea imports."

On his first day in office, Adilur Rahman Khan, the new interim government's industrial advisor, informed reporters that one of his priority tasks is to ensure the supply of necessary gas to the closed fertilizer factories. However, he did not specify how long it would take to achieve this.

On the other hand, in June 2022, the price of gas for industrial use was increased from BDT 4.45 per unit to BDT 16. However, even after more than two years, the government fertilizer factories have not been paying the higher price. The factories had claimed that they could not afford the increased cost at that time. BCIC had requested a subsidy from the outgoing government through the Ministry of Industries to cover the additional cost. However, as no final decision was made, the organization has not paid the increased gas price. This has also led to issues with the Ministry of Energy's gas supply.

When asked, BCIC Chairman Md. Saidur Rahman told Bonik Barta, "A decision has recently been made to provide a subsidy for the increased price. Once the subsidy is granted, the Ministry of Agriculture will pay the additional price to the Ministry of Energy. We had planned our import strategy with the expectation that production would continue uninterrupted. However, production is being hampered by the gas shortage, and there are delays in imports due to the dollar shortage. If we are unable to produce and import in a timely manner, it will become a cause for concern."

According to government statistics, in the fiscal year 2022-23, more than 5.5 million tons of fertilizer were imported, and domestic production exceeded 9 lakh tons. Although the availability or stock of fertilizer was 6.4 million tons that year, nearly 6.1 million tons were used.

When asked about the overall fertilizer management, Dr. Mohammad Emdad Ullah Mian, Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, told Bonik Barta, "We have no issues with fertilizer until November. However, we are working on the fertilizer requirements for the Boro season. The dollar shortage is a concern, but we have had inter-ministerial meetings about it. The Ministry of Finance and the Governor of Bangladesh Bank have assured us that the necessary dollars for fertilizer imports will be allocated on a priority basis. We expect the issue to be resolved within two to three days. The delay is primarily due to the dollar shortage."