A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar’s Mandalay region yesterday (March 28), which shook six nearby countries simultaneously. While Bangladesh did not suffer any damage due to its distance from the epicenter, Myanmar and Thailand experienced severe devastation. However, Bangladesh has felt multiple earthquakes this year alone, all originating outside its borders. Experts warn that the frequent seismic activity in nearby regions could be a warning sign of a major earthquake in the country.

According to specialists, these recent quakes have not caused much damage because their epicenters were far away. However, if a strong earthquake were to hit closer, the destruction could be catastrophic, especially in densely populated Dhaka. Experts have been warning about this risk for over a decade. After Nepal’s 2015 earthquake, discussions on Bangladesh’s preparedness intensified, yet no significant measures have been taken. Instead, Dhaka’s population density has increased, and various infrastructure projects have been implemented, which could make rescue operations even more challenging in the event of a disaster.

In just the first week of January this year, Bangladesh experienced two earthquakes. The stronger one struck on January 7, originating in Zhejiang, China. And the moderate one on January 3 had its epicenter in Homalin, Myanmar. Over the past two years, earthquakes have become more frequent in Bangladesh. Historical data shows that in the last 100 to 150 years, the region has experienced five to six major quakes. In 1762, an 8.5-magnitude earthquake struck Chattogram and the Chattogram Hill Tracts, triggering a tsunami that caused massive destruction along the Bay of Bengal coastline. Other significant earthquakes include a 7.5-magnitude quake near Sylhet in 1869, one near Sirajganj in 1885, and the Great Indian Earthquake of 1897, which measured 8.0 and had its epicenter in Shillong. Additionally, a 7.6-magnitude quake hit Sreemangal in 1908, and in 1930, the Dhubri Earthquake caused significant damage in Rangpur, registering at a magnitude of 7.1.

Analysts point out that earthquakes of magnitude 7 tend to occur every 100 to 150 years, while magnitude 8 quakes happen roughly every 250 to 300 years. Based on this pattern, the risk of a 7.0-magnitude earthquake in Bangladesh is currently very high, and concerns have grown even more in the past five to six years.

Despite repeated warnings about the potential devastation an earthquake could cause in Dhaka, past governments have largely ignored the issue. Even after the interim government took office, no significant action has been taken to strengthen earthquake preparedness.

Recent small earthquakes have increased the risk of a major quake in Bangladesh, according to Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a professor at BUET’s civil engineering department and the founding secretary of the Bangladesh Earthquake Society. He explained, “There are two theories. One suggests that small earthquakes may prevent a larger one, while the other states that these smaller tremors are actually precursors to a bigger quake. The question is, which one should we consider? We must take precautionary measures. If we prepare for a major earthquake, our risks decrease. But if we assume that small tremors mean a big one won’t happen, and then it does, the scale of destruction would be unimaginable.”

Dr. Ansary pointed out that after Nepal’s 2015 earthquake, he repeatedly urged government committees to inspect and certify buildings in major cities like Dhaka and Chattogram, just as they did after the Rana Plaza collapse. “Years have passed, but no one paid attention,” he said.

So far, recent earthquakes have not caused any major damage in Bangladesh or Dhaka. However, experts warn that if a quake reaches a dangerous magnitude, the destruction could be severe, especially in the capital. Over the past few decades, Dhaka has expanded rapidly and haphazardly. While the city’s older areas were built on solid ground, much of the newer expansion has taken place on weaker soil, often on reclaimed wetlands. If an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher strikes, these areas could face massive casualties and property damage. Even buildings constructed with proper piling would not be completely safe from such devastation.

Dr. Adil Mohammed Khan, a professor of Urban and Regional Planning at Jahangirnagar University, told Bonik Barta, “Dhaka’s soil is of two types. The area stretching from Sadarghat to Madhupur in Gazipur is made of Pleistocene-era red soil, which is very strong. This includes Old Dhaka, Dhaka University, the airport, Tongi, parts of Gazipur, and Savar. But areas surrounding Dhaka—like Keraniganj, Hemayetpur, parts of Purbachal, and sections of Narayanganj—are floodplain deposits that are still forming. These lands accumulate sediment from floods and rising water levels during the monsoon. In such areas, buildings require piling up to 30-40 meters deep, yet even then, there is still risk.”

He stressed that ensuring public safety in such conditions is the state’s responsibility. “If a major earthquake hits Dhaka, it’s not just buildings that will collapse—rescue operations will become nearly impossible. In areas with narrow streets, fire service vehicles won’t be able to enter. Even fire stations could collapse. If metro rail structures or expressways fall, the entire city’s transportation system will be paralyzed. There are no open spaces for people to take shelter during an earthquake. In Turkey, despite widespread corruption in their building authority, they at least had open areas for evacuation—something Dhaka lacks. If an earthquake strikes, the risk of fires from electrical faults is also very high. This city is vulnerable to multiple disasters, yet the government has taken no real steps to mitigate these risks. Instead, under pressure from real estate developers, they have repeatedly compromised urban planning. Allowing high-rises on narrow roads has only made the city even less livable.”

Over the past 400 years, Dhaka has gone through numerous expansions and changes. The city’s current area now stands at 1,528 square kilometers. Beyond the two city corporations, the city now includes parts of Narayanganj, Gazipur, Savar, and Keraniganj. To accommodate this expansion, Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (RAJUK) has introduced the Detailed Area Plan (DAP), claiming it will ensure planned land use across the city.

However, researchers do not entirely agree. They argue that Dhaka has already expanded in an unplanned manner over weak soil and filled-up wetlands, making it highly vulnerable. Simply implementing DAP would not be enough to mitigate the risks.

Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansary explained, “Yes, there are engineering methods to build on filled-up wetlands, and with proper piling, structures might be earthquake-resistant. But even then, there’s no guarantee of absolute safety. During an earthquake, buildings constructed on reclaimed land can collapse. We’ve seen this happen before. One of the most striking examples is the 1985 earthquake in Mexico. There, buildings constructed over former water bodies crumbled, killing 15,000 people. The earthquake’s epicenter was 300 kilometers away from Mexico City, but the weak soil in certain areas caused massive destruction. Our situation is similar—Bangladesh’s earthquake sources are 200-300 kilometers away from Dhaka. Many buildings here stand on land where canals and wetlands were filled in, making them highly vulnerable. Even if piling is done properly, the unstable soil itself increases the risk of collapse. That’s why improving the soil before construction is crucial.”