The Aman rice cultivation season has begun in various districts across the country. Paddy seedlings are already being transplanted in some areas, while in others, preparations for transplantation are underway.
The Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre (FFWC) issued a forecast indicating the possibility of flooding in low-lying areas of northern Bangladesh. Agricultural stakeholders fear that such flooding could delay the Aman season. A delayed Aman season could disrupt the entire agricultural cycle, they warn. This may affect the planting and harvesting periods of various crops, including winter vegetables and the subsequent Boro rice crop.
In its 10-day forecast covering the period from June 21 to July 2, the FFWC stated that the possibility of above-normal rainfall remains in northern Bangladesh and the adjacent upstream regions. Short-term flooding may consequently occur by June 28 in low-lying areas along the Teesta, Dharla and Dudhkumar rivers in the northern districts of Rangpur, Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat and Kurigram.
The forecast also indicates that low-lying areas along the Surma and Kushiyara rivers in the northeastern districts of Sylhet and Sunamganj may experience short-term flooding. Some low-lying areas adjacent to the Bhugai, Kangsha and Someshwari rivers in Netrokona, Mymensingh and Sherpur districts could also be temporarily submerged.
Water levels in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna and Ganges-Padma river systems may rise during this period, but are likely to remain below the danger level, according to FFWC. In addition, water levels in rivers across the eastern and southeastern regions, including Chattogram Division, are expected to increase.
Heavy rainfall is expected through Sunday in the Rangpur, Sylhet and Mymensingh divisions, as well as in the adjoining upstream regions of India, including West Bengal, Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya, the forecast further notes. Rainfall of up to 350–400 millimetres may occur in some locations during this period.
River water levels are currently flowing at the warning level at several monitoring stations, including the Teesta River at Dalia (Nilphamari), Kaunia (Rangpur), and Tarapur (Gaibandha); the Surma River at Chhatak (Sunamganj); the Kushiyara River at Fenchuganj (Sylhet) and Markuli (Sunamganj); and the Someshwari River at Kalmakanda (Netrokona), according to a FFWC forecast issued on Wednesday.
The forecast further stated that water levels in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system have risen and may continue to increase over the next five days. On the fourth and fifth days of the forecast period, the Brahmaputra may flow at the warning level in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogura districts, potentially causing temporary inundation in some adjacent low-lying areas.
Water levels in the Ganges-Padma river system have also increased and may continue to rise over the next five days. In the northeastern region, water levels in the Surma-Kushiyara river system have risen and may continue increasing for another three days. During this period, some low-lying areas along these rivers in Sylhet and Sunamganj districts may experience temporary flooding.
Agricultural economists note that the Aman cultivation season is currently underway across the country. If prolonged flooding occurs in the northern region during this period, the Aman season could be delayed, they warn. Such a delay would likely affect the broader agricultural calendar. A postponed Aman season could also disrupt the cultivation cycle of winter vegetables and the subsequent Boro rice season.
Speaking to Bonik Barta, agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam said, “Aman seedlings have already been transplanted in some areas. If flooding occurs, these seedlings may be damaged. But if the flooding is short-lived, farmers will be able to recover from the losses, and there will be no significant impact on agricultural production or the cropping cycle. But if flood conditions persist for an extended period, the Aman season may be delayed. In that case, both crop production and the overall agricultural cycle could be affected.”