The capital Dhaka and its surrounding areas have been experiencing repeated earthquakes for several years. Experts warn that with epicenters identified in Dohar, Manikganj, and Narsingdi, the region may face a major seismic event. They note that industrial zones, housing, and infrastructure built across the Shitalakshya Basin have largely risen on filled wetlands, which remain highly prone to subsidence. In the event of an earthquake, not only Dhaka’s megaprojects but also power plants, fertilizer factories, private industrial facilities, and densely packed residential areas along the Shitalakshya River would face comparatively greater risk. Even a moderate earthquake, they caution, could inflict significant damage across the region.
An earthquake was felt in Dhaka and several parts of the country at 10:38 am on November 21, 2025. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) measured the quake at 5.7 on the Richter scale, with the epicenter in Madhabdi, just outside the capital in Narsingdi. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), however, reported a magnitude of 5.5. More than one hundred buildings developed cracks in Narsingdi. Many structures in Dhaka were also damaged. Several buildings tilted. At least 10 people died after walls and roof railings collapsed, and more than one thousand people were injured.
Geologists say that Bangladesh sits in an earthquake-prone zone due to its geographic location. The country stands close to the boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates, where tremors are frequent. So far, the country has experienced nearly 100 earthquakes of magnitude 2 or higher in 2025 alone. Eight of them were above magnitude 4, and 44 were between magnitude 3 and 4.
The 1762 Arakan earthquake was one of the worst ever recorded in this area, estimated between magnitudes 8.5 and 8.8. The quake caused severe damage in the Chattogram region and altered the course of the Brahmaputra River. Then in 1897, the Shillong earthquake at magnitude 8.7, also caused extensive destruction in the Sylhet region.
Geologists are increasingly worried about the frequent earthquakes in recent times. They warn that these events signal increased activity across the belt surrounding the capital Dhaka. Small quakes often precede a major one, serving as early warnings.
Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a professor at the civil engineering department in the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), has long studied seismic hazards. Speaking to Bonik Barta, he said that large earthquakes tend to strike a region every 100 to 150 years. Over the last 150 years, Bangladesh and nearby areas have experienced one major earthquake and roughly five of moderate strength. He said this pattern suggests the possibility of another major earthquake in the near future.
Ansary added that Bangladesh sits atop five tectonic plate sources, including zones stretching from Noakhali to Cox’s Bazar, from Noakhali to Sylhet, and another extending from Sylhet toward India. “Narsingdi is a small segment of the major fault that runs from Noakhali to Sylhet,” he said, adding that an epicenter in Narsingdi is not unusual.
He further said, “We have repeatedly warned that a major earthquake is at our doorstep. Bangladesh has a history of magnitude 7 to 8 earthquakes every 100 to 150 years. We call this the seismic time frame or cycle. The country has now entered that cycle. These small tremors are precursors to a larger event. But the government has yet to treat the issue with seriousness. If a magnitude 7 earthquake strikes, even the Fire Service will be impossible to locate. Their buildings will also collapse. Metro rail and the expressway will lie across the roads. No vehicles will be able to move. We expect the state to act on this while there is still time.”
If a major earthquake strikes the Shitalakshya Basin, the impact would be most severe in Dhaka, Narayanganj, Rupganj, Sonargaon, and Siddhirganj. These areas now host some of the country’s most significant megaprojects, including the elevated expressway, metro rail routes, the Padma connector road, multiple industrial zone expansion projects, and a wide array of large infrastructure. Specialists say most of these projects were built on soft, riverine soil that faces heightened risk of shaking during an earthquake. On both sides of the Shitalakshya sit hundreds of textile, dyeing, chemical, steel, power generation, and cement factories. Experts warn that if fuel tanks, boilers, or chemical storage facilities at these sites are damaged during a quake, the result could be a major environmental disaster. Densely populated worker housing will also face high number of casualties.
Dr. Md Moniruzzaman, a professor in the geography and environment department at Jagannath University (JnU), said, “There are hundreds of medium and heavy industries along the banks of the Shitalakshya. Beyond these factories, there are many housing developments. In particular, the Jolshiri Abashon project and surrounding sites now include buildings rising up to 30 floors. No matter how strong the piling is, these structures remain at risk. That’s because these housings were built on filled wetlands.”
He added, “If earthquakes continue as they have in recent months, the capital’s megaprojects and residential areas will suffer, and so will industrial facilities in Savar, Manikganj, Gazipur, Keraniganj, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Rupganj. The lives of hundreds of thousands of workers employed in these major industrial zones also remain vulnerable.”
Over the past decade, many factories have gradually moved from central Dhaka to surrounding districts to ease pressure on the capital. The earthquake that struck Madhabdi in Narsingdi on November 21 hit an area that now hosts one of the country’s major power generation hubs as well as its largest fertilizer plant. Large private industrial operations have also expanded along the banks of the Shitalakshya and Turag rivers. Specialists warn that if seismic intensity reaches a dangerous level, these zones could face extensive damage. They believe the scale of devastation in Dhaka would be especially severe.
Experts allege that Dhaka has expanded rapidly and without planning in recent decades. The older parts of the city were built on firm ground, but soil conditions across newer neighborhoods are weaker. Much of the development and expansion rests on filled wetlands. A magnitude 7 earthquake or stronger, experts warn, would likely cause significant loss of life and widespread destruction. Although scientists have long expressed concern about a major disaster in the capital, past governments ignored those warnings. The interim government has also taken no effective steps.
While risks from disasters, including fire and earthquake, continue to rise, the government is moving to amend the Detailed Area Plan (DAP), allowing for more high-rise construction projects and more people to settle in Dhaka. Dr. Adil Mohammed Khan, president of the Bangladesh Institute of Planners (BIP) and executive director of the Institute of Planning and Development (IPD), described this approach as a betrayal of public safety. He told Bonik Barta, “No civilized city in the world compromised on planning. Planning clearly states that farmland cannot be filled, that wetlands cannot be filled for housing or any structure. But business groups have pressured the authorities and changed the plans. The DAP is now awaiting revision. What does it mean to compromise on planning? It is like removing a vital organ such as a liver or kidney from a healthy body. A person can live without a kidney. But not in good health. Over the last three decades, under pressure from business interests, the government has removed Dhaka’s lungs, kidneys, liver, and heart. Dhaka has now become a death trap. The latest example is the interim government’s decision to revise the DAP by increasing building heights and population density, which is an act of self-destruction.”
Experts say Dhaka’s condition has reached a complicated stage because urban planning has been repeatedly weakened. Dr. Akter Mahmud, a professor in the urban and regional planning department at Jahangirnagar University (JUU), told Bonik Barta that the situation can no longer be fixed through normal rules or laws. “People are often told to run outside and stand on the street during an earthquake. But today (yesterday, November 21) we saw someone standing on the road die after a building railing collapsed. Narrow roads lined with tall buildings and weak structures have made Dhaka even more vulnerable. The city needs a special intervention. If that requires demolishing many buildings like the BGMEA structure, then they must be demolished for the sake of human life. There is no alternative.”
He added, “In the recent past we saw how a magnitude 7 earthquake in Haiti in 2010 killed about 250,000 people. Yet a magnitude 8 earthquake in Chile that same year caused only around 550 deaths. The reason is simple. Haiti did not enforce planning or building codes. On the other hand, Chile never compromised on them and enforced codes strictly. We now face both examples. Will we take the risk of hundreds of thousands of deaths like Haiti, or will we build a safe city like Chile? We have to decide now.”
Because areas around the capital have repeatedly become earthquake epicenters, the issue must be treated as a top priority, said Md Ashraful Islam, chief town planner at the Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (RAJUK). He told Bonik Barta, “An earthquake struck Dohar about a year ago, and now one has struck Madhabdi. Yet Dhaka has no rescue system and no open space for people to gather. In Old Dhaka, if a massive accident occurs, there are no roads through which rescue teams can even enter. And around the capital, in Savar, Keraniganj, and Rupganj, illegal high-rises are going up rapidly. RAJUK must bring these under regulation. If necessary, third-party inspectors can be appointed. We cannot push the city toward a death trap.”
People are instructed to move into open spaces during an earthquake or fire. Dhaka, however, has almost no such open space. Global standards require city roads to be at least 30 feet wide so emergency teams can respond quickly during a disaster. But roads are narrowing in Dhaka as building heights rise. Ashraful Islam said this is nothing short of preparing the city for destruction. “The government must ensure open space and water bodies in every area according to planning standards, even if land has to be acquired,” he said. “The state is responsible for people’s lives and the safety of their families. Any negligence will fall on us.”