The Middle East war has triggered a fuel price shock across numerous economies, with global oil prices rising by more than a third. The knock-on effect is now straining Bangladesh’s transport network.

The pressure comes at a precarious moment. The country is about to enter the long Eid-ul-Fitr holiday, which officially begins on March 17 and runs for seven consecutive days. In practice, the holiday will extend for much of the month; Independence Day on March 26 falls on a Thursday, creating another three-day weekend. Officials and analysts fear that the prolonged disruption to goods transport due to the long holiday could further stoke already high inflation.

The pressure on prices during an extended closure was evident last year. The Eid-ul-Fitr holiday in 2025 ran for nine days, from March 28 to April 5. The subsequent Eid-ul-Adha break stretched to ten days, lasting from June 5 to June 14. In both instances, the price of essentials such as rice, eggs, poultry and vegetables rose sharply. The central bank later confirmed that the lengthy Eid-ul-Adha closure had exacerbated inflation.

Market data from the capital and other districts suggests a repeating pattern. Over the past two weeks, the cost of numerous staples has increased. Rice, for example, is now priced BDT 2 to BDT 5 more a kilo. In some neighbourhoods, the cost of Sonali chicken has exceeded BDT 350 a kilo, while broiler chicken is trading at more than BDT 250. Eggs and vegetables are also under upward pressure.

The spike is driven partly by the holiday travel. As millions of city residents travel to their home villages for Eid, demand for goods transport to rural areas — destinations often farther from distribution hubs than urban markets — has surged. This, in turn, has pushed up transport costs.

Economists, traders and market analysts said the extended holidays last year did not trigger the same level of concern. But this year, the Middle East conflict has injected a new element of global uncertainty, particularly over fuel. Motorists across Bangladesh are facing long queues at filling stations and often cannot secure the fuel they need. Transport costs have already risen by an estimated 20 to 25 percent, and transporters report a shortage of trucks for long-haul routes. Industry insiders fear the situation will deteriorate further once the Eid closure begins.

Bangladesh’s economy is already fragile after years of high inflation, unemployment, investment stagnation and energy insecurity. Dr Fahmida Khatun, an economist who serves as executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private research organisation, said the lengthy holiday will compound the stress.

“Public holidays are declared throughout the year for one observance or another. On top of that, these extended festival closures are putting the entire economic system at risk,” she told Bonik Barta. “In two months, the country will again be hit by a long holiday. I doubt any other country has as many public holidays as we do. The Chinese work all year and then take a long break for their New Year. But here, with so many holidays throughout the year, a long festival closure is simply hollow.”

She added that much of the world is navigating a period of acute uncertainty. “In this situation, every moment counts for the government. A seven-to-ten-day holiday means all activity — offices, courts, factories, production — is frozen in place for that period. The impact on the supply chain, given the current circumstances, will be severe. Prices will rise. Inflation will be further stoked. In such a situation, attempts to control inflation by raising interest rates become an exercise in futility.”

BUSINESSES REPORT SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTION

The business sector shares the concern. Anwar-ul-Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI), argued that the long holiday poses a serious threat to the economy, particularly to imports and exports. “Every moment is critical for us given the current situation,” he told Bonik Barta. “Beyond the domestic supply chain, the extended holiday will have a significant negative impact on imports and exports. If a vessel has to sit idle at the port for five days, the compensation for that delay will ultimately be borne by the country’s consumers.”

The disruption is already evident at Meghna Group, one of the country’s largest manufacturers of consumer goods. The company operates roughly 3,500 trucks to transport its products. While it typically draws fuel from depots, it has been unable to obtain sufficient supplies for days, leaving many vehicles idle and hampering its ability to meet market demand.

The situation has prompted the commerce ministry to intervene and write to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) urging it to ensure stable fuel supplies so the Meghna Group can maintain deliveries of both imported raw materials and finished goods. The letter notes that raw materials imported by the group are transferred from mother vessels to around 130 lighters for transport to its factories in Sonargaon, Narayanganj. From there, more than 1,000 trucks and covered vans distribute food and other essential products nationwide.

Speaking to Bonik Barta, Meghna Group’s Managing Director Mostafa Kamal described the operational paralysis. “A significant number of our vehicles are unable to run due to the fuel shortage. Raw material collection is being disrupted and so we can’t make timely deliveries,” he said. “Although we were assured that fuel is arriving at the ports regularly, we’re not getting it on the ground. We face major problems both in bringing raw materials from Chattogram by river on lighter ships and in dispatching finished goods by road. The diesel we receive against our vouchers is insufficient even for our trucks’ needs. If fuel supplies aren’t normalised soon, we could see both shortages of consumer goods in the market and further price hikes.”

The impact is also being felt at TK Group, another major industrial conglomerate, where a lack of fuel for its trucks is disrupting deliveries. Mohammad Mofassel Haque, business director at the group, said the shortage is hitting its supply chain directly.

“We aren’t getting enough fuel for transport and distribution, which is delaying deliveries. We’re also facing a 30 percent shortfall in fuel for our vehicles,” he told Bonik Barta. “The situation has become particularly difficult outside the capital. Even if we manage to move goods from the factory to the depot, getting them from the depot to distributors and retailers is proving a major problem. Unless resolved quickly, there’ll be serious disruption in the supply chain, and the consumer will ultimately pay the price.”

The vegetable oil supply chain is now under threat. An association of edible oil refiners has written to the commerce secretary demanding assured fuel supplies. The group said the shortage has rendered more than half of its own transport fleet inoperable and made it difficult to hire vehicles.

The government has declared a seven-day public holiday for Eid-ul-Fitr, running from March 17 to March 23. Offices will then reopen for two days, on March 24 and 25, before another break for Independence Day on Thursday (March 26). That holiday will extend through the weekend, with Friday (March 27) and Saturday (March 28) also non-working days.

Enquiries at various public and private institutions suggest many employees are taking leave on March 24 and 25 as well. The effect will be a near-continuous closure or a holiday atmosphere in government offices lasting 12 days, from March 17 until March 28.

DATA SHOW LINK BETWEEN LONG HOLIDAYS AND PRICE SPIKES

Inflation in Bangladesh began its upward trajectory in early 2022 and remained in double digits throughout 2023 and 2024. It eased by mid-2025, falling to a low of 8.17 percent in October, but has since climbed again. In February, the rate reached 9.13 percent, the highest in ten months and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics attributes the latest pressure to rising food prices.

A study by the central bank provides a clear link between extended public holidays and price spikes. Conducted jointly by the chief economist’s unit and the governor’s office, the research titled “A Study on Value Chain Efficiency of the Agricultural Products in Bangladesh (Phase II)” surveyed agricultural supply chains in 61 sub-districts across 18 districts between June 15 and July 7 last year, a period that included the long Eid-ul-Adha holiday.

The findings were stark. At the time of the survey, coarse rice was retailing at an average of BDT 61 per kg, compared to BDT 55 per kg a year earlier — a rise of 10.9 percent. Fine rice prices stood at BDT 78 per kg, up from BDT 70 per kg, an 11 percent increase.

The report identifies the extended Eid closure as a major contributory factor. Most rice mills remained shut for the entire ten-day holiday, it noted. With banks also closed, the paddy trade effectively ground to a halt. Farmers and traders, unable to sell, instead held onto their stocks. When mills resumed operations en masse after the holiday, demand for paddy surged while market supply remained tight, pushing up prices. The effect fed directly through to the retail price of rice.

The study also acknowledged other structural pressures on rice prices, including rising production costs for farmers, higher wages and irrigation expenses, the gradual loss of arable land, a shift by farmers toward other crops, and duties on imports.