Fears are growing across the Middle East of fresh military strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. Washington has told regional allies to prepare for possible strikes and for Iranian retaliation, warning specifically about the risk of attacks on energy installations and critical infrastructure.
Asian countries are meanwhile preparing for the economic and security fallout from a possible conflict. Thailand has moved to review its emergency security plans. The Philippines, Japan and several other countries are working to strengthen energy stockpiles and supply security. South Korea has also begun fresh discussions on the security of the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy experts say that if a major new conflict breaks out in the Middle East, oil and LNG prices on international markets could rise and supply and transport systems could be disrupted on a larger scale.
They believe Bangladesh, as an import-dependent country, also needs strategic preparations, with particular emphasis on diversifying energy supply sources, fuel procurement, emergency stockpile management and an integrated plan, starting now, to absorb the financial pressure of possible price rises.
The US midterm elections take place on Tuesday. The Associated Press reported that US officials had told several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies that a new military operation against Iran could begin after the elections. They were also told to remain alert to possible retaliatory attacks by Iran and its allied armed groups.
The US officials told regional allies the operation could last several days, though there are fears that retaliation by Iran and groups it supports could prolong the conflict. Energy production and supply facilities, airports and other critical infrastructure could be key targets.
Washington has meanwhile reinforced its military presence in the Middle East.
According to AP, the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and several amphibious warships carrying Marines were sent towards the Persian Gulf in late October.
The ships carry about 9,000 personnel. The deployment could push the number of US naval and Marine personnel in the Middle East above 20,000.
Thailand’s National Security Council (NSC) is making emergency preparations to deal with the fallout from a possible conflict. General Chaiyapruek Duangpraphat, the council’s secretary-general, said the government was reviewing what impact a new conflict between the United States and Iran could have on energy supplies, the economy and national security. It plans to meet relevant government agencies and experts to address possible scenarios; the meeting may take place on Wednesday.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has ordered the NSC to identify areas requiring advance preparation, with government agencies’ tasks determined by the scale of any crisis.
Energy security is the top priority. The government is reviewing an emergency fuel stockpile and supply plan drawn up during an earlier Middle East conflict in light of the new situation.
Thailand has also prepared to bring Thai citizens in the Middle East home safely, and has instructed relevant embassies to monitor the situation closely. Citizens will be evacuated to safe locations with military assistance if necessary.
Alongside energy and citizen safety, Thailand has taken into account the risk of cyber-attacks, with the Digital Economy and Society Ministry and other relevant agencies preparing to protect critical digital infrastructure.
Energy experts believe Bangladesh should take similar measures if the new conflict spreads further, in particular by preparing how and how quickly alternative options can be activated if the crisis worsens.
Energy expert Dr Badrul Imam told Bonik Barta: “If a major conflict breaks out in the Middle East again, there may be scope to build a strategic stockpile structure, especially by creating diversified sources for energy imports, so that if a supply crisis emerges in one place the alternatives can be activated immediately. We don’t have storage infrastructure in that sense either. For that reason, it can’t be said that we will be able to take much advantage. But we must be prepared to deal with the crisis.”
Bangladesh is already focusing on securing alternative import sources and on long-term infrastructure development.
Petrobangla has said it would arrange the nine LNG cargoes needed for November. Six are expected to come under long-term contracts and three under short-term deals. But experts believe that if the conflict intensifies again, the cost of importing LNG and fuel oil, and supply, could come under pressure in the coming months.
The Bangladesh government has also stepped up contacts with various countries to diversify its energy import sources.
On July 28, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman spoke by telephone with his Malaysian counterpart, Anwar Ibrahim, and discussed the prospect of LNG supplies through Petronas, Malaysia’s state energy company, to help ease Bangladesh’s gas crisis.
During a visit to Algeria, Power Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood met Prime Minister Sifi Ghrieb on October 20, and a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the energy sector, including imports of LNG, LPG and other petroleum products, was signed during the visit.
Bangladesh is also in talks with Qatar on a new long-term LNG supply agreement. State Minister for Power Anindya Islam Amit met QatarEnergy chief Saad bin Sherida Al-Kaabi in Saudi Arabia on October 11. They discussed a new supply deal and the possibility of buying LNG from alternative sources.
To secure energy supplies over the longer term, the Bangladeshi government is also focusing on expanding infrastructure and on renewables. During a visit to Japan, the Prime Minister Tarique Rahman discussed energy cooperation with his Japanese counterpart Sanaye Takaichi on October 27.
Rahman also visited Jera’s onshore LNG terminal. Jera plans to build an onshore LNG terminal at Matarbari with a capacity of 1 billion cubic feet a day, and the Japanese company is interested in increasing both long- and short-term LNG supplies to Bangladesh.
The government has already responded to global conditions by emphasising renewable power in order to cut fuel imports, targeting 3,000-4,000 megawatts of solar generation before next summer.
The prime minister also opened the Bangladesh Solar Expo 2026 in the capital on Tuesday, part of a push to expand the use of solar power substantially.
If a major new conflict breaks out in the Middle East, energy supplies worldwide will be at risk, and countries will compete fiercely to buy fuel. Energy analysts believe Bangladesh will face the same conditions and will need to take strategic steps.
Shafiqul Alam, the lead Bangladesh energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), told Bonik Barta: “If conditions in the international energy market suddenly worsen further, the ability of a country like Bangladesh to compete for fuel purchases will diminish. In a bad situation we may still be able to buy, but our financial capacity may be reduced further. On the other hand, we are not in a position to buy fuel and store it. The one comfort is that electricity demand falls considerably in the coming winter, so energy demand will be lower too. That will put some brake on importing fuel at higher prices, but if the crisis drags on it will hit home next summer. Renewable energy can help to some extent, if the government can push ahead with its targets.”
A new war between the United States and Iran would risk another global crisis, and the shock would be extremely hard for an economy like Bangladesh’s to absorb, according to Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI).
He told Bonik Barta: “What any crisis most requires is national unity and coordinated preparation. There must be effective control and coordination of the work of the institutions concerned, so that everyone is mentally prepared to tackle the crisis. But I am doubtful how much importance the government is giving these matters.”
The BCI president added: “To keep the economy in balance, the most sensitive commodity at this moment is fuel oil. Importing oil and other essential goods requires a huge amount of dollars. One of our main sources of foreign currency earnings is the textiles and ready-made garments sector. Yet these sectors are now mired in uncertainty. We do not have adequate preparation to handle such a situation. If a new global crisis emerges, the government must think now about how it will cope. Inflation is already high, unemployment is rising and new investment is not coming in. In these circumstances, the highest priority must go to keeping existing industry and investment going and protecting them from the damage a possible crisis could inflict. The government must take every necessary step to that end. Preparations to confront a major economic risk in future need to be strengthened now.”
The Philippines, meanwhile, has moved to build up its oil stocks over fears that the Middle East conflict could cause prolonged disruption to energy supplies. Reuters, quoting the country’s energy secretary Sharon Garin, reported that talks were underway with several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, Japan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Australia, on fuel stockpiling and supply security.
According to the energy secretary, the Philippines currently holds about 55 days’ worth of fuel stocks and has set a target of improving that capacity further. It also plans to build a government fuel storage depot in the Bataan area.
Japan is likewise expanding regional cooperation to strengthen Asia’s energy security. Tokyo has launched a joint initiative with Australia and nine South-East Asian countries to bolster emergency fuel stocks and supply systems. It focuses on expanding national and regional fuel storage capacity, mutual assistance in emergencies and the development of alternative energy sources.
Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia have also taken supply-management and conservation measures to deal with energy crises.
Fearing that disruptions to supply systems could pose a major risk to economies dependent on oil and gas imports from the Middle East, ASEAN countries are focusing on emergency fuel supplies, stockpile management and regional power links.
At last month’s meeting of ASEAN energy ministers in Manila, the group emphasised bringing the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) into force so member states can help one another in an energy crisis.
Under the agreement, if a member country faces a major shortfall in oil supplies, emergency assistance is arranged in coordination with other countries. As of October 30, six of the 11 members had ratified it, with the aim of completing ratification by the rest before this month’s ASEAN summit.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy transport routes, carrying oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf to international markets. Asian countries in particular depend heavily on it for energy shipments.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at the international online financial trading and brokerage firm KCM Trade, believes crude prices could rise again on international markets if military tensions over Iran flare anew after the US midterm elections. If fears of conflict intensify, he says, Brent could climb above $120 a barrel.