Military conflicts, international sanctions, diplomatic disputes and airspace restrictions are creating major operational, financial and security risks for the global aviation sector. Airlines are being forced to take longer routes to avoid conflict zones, while flights are being cancelled or rescheduled. Uncertainty over fuel supplies and rising prices, disruptions to international connections and shifts in passenger demand are also putting pressure on airlines’ profitability. GPS jamming and spoofing, along with threats from drones and missiles, are further complicating the security environment for civil aviation.
The ongoing Middle East instability has intensified these risks, with its impact spreading to aviation markets in Europe, Asia and North America. Bangladesh is also exposed to the fallout. As a large share of the country’s international air connectivity depends on the Middle East, prolonged instability in the region could put considerable pressure on flight operations, passenger transport, cargo services and airline revenues.
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and European air traffic management organisation Eurocontrol also highlight the scale of the crisis. Middle East conflicts are disrupting airport operations across the region, while international airlines are being forced to use longer alternative flight paths for security reasons, increasing fuel costs and complicating aircraft utilisation, crew management and connecting flight schedules.
According to Eurocontrol, around 1,150 flights have had to take alternative routes every day since the conflict began. These aircraft are collectively covering an additional 206,000 kilometres daily, adding around 28,000 minutes to flight times. Alternative routes are also burning an additional 602 tonnes of fuel and emitting around 1,900 tonnes of extra carbon dioxide every day.
The conflict is also affecting fuel costs. According to IATA, global airlines’ fuel expenditure could reach around $350 billion in 2026, approximately 40 percent higher than in 2025. The organisation’s Director General Willie Walsh said average jet fuel prices could rise by around 70 percent year on year. This could increase airlines’ combined fuel bills by nearly $100 billion. To cope with the higher costs, airlines are raising ticket prices, reducing flights on less profitable routes and postponing plans to launch new routes.
Another major risk to civil aviation arising from geopolitical conflicts is GPS or Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) jamming and spoofing. Jamming weakens or disables satellite navigation signals, while spoofing involves transmitting false location or timing data to aircraft. This places additional pressure on pilots and air traffic controllers and may require alternative navigation systems, route changes or flight diversions.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has reported a significant rise in such interference across the Middle East, the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Reports of jamming in 2025 increased by 67 percent compared with 2023, while GPS spoofing incidents rose by 193 percent. Such interference has become even more frequent around the Middle East since the conflict in the region intensified.
Meanwhile, fresh security concerns have emerged in European airspace. At least seven flights across Europe received bomb threats yesterday, prompting emergency landings, security checks and disruptions to flight operations at several airports. The affected airlines included Poland’s LOT Polish Airlines, Scandinavian Airlines (SAS), Ryanair and Wizz Air. A LOT Polish Airlines flight from London to Warsaw landed at Modlin Airport following a threat. A Ryanair aircraft travelling from Dublin to Rome landed under escort from Italian fighter jets. The previous day, a Wizz Air flight from London Luton to Sofia was diverted to Budapest following a bomb threat. Although the incidents temporarily disrupted operations at several airports, searches found no explosives.
Operational disruptions across the global aviation sector are also intensifying due to security risks and airspace restrictions. The Middle East conflict has prompted airlines worldwide to cancel, suspend or reschedule flights. Singapore Airlines recently announced that flights SQ494 and SQ495 on the Singapore-Dubai route had been cancelled until February 28, 2027, due to the situation in the Middle East. British Airways has also scaled back its flight schedules to Abu Dhabi, Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai, Tel Aviv and Riyadh amid the ongoing conflict and airspace restrictions in the region.
Other airlines in Europe and Asia have taken similar measures in response to the instability in the Middle East. Air France-KLM has extended the suspension of its Riyadh flights until November 7, while airlines under the Lufthansa Group have cancelled all flights to Riyadh until November 18. Philippine Airlines has also extended the suspension of its Riyadh route until November 29. Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, meanwhile, has postponed the resumption of its Hong Kong-Riyadh and Hong Kong-Dubai services until January 31, 2027. US carrier Delta Air Lines has also pushed back the launch of its new Atlanta-Riyadh route until March 2027.
Airlines in the Gulf region have also been directly affected. Qatar Airways has temporarily suspended flights to Riyadh, Dammam, Abha and Taif. Etihad Airways has cancelled flights on the Abu Dhabi-Riyadh and Abu Dhabi-Dammam routes. Among Indian carriers, Air India has extended the suspension of flights to Riyadh, Dammam and Jeddah. IndiGo had cancelled flights to Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam and Medina. On November 2, IndiGo also said it was operating around 30 fewer flights a day due to the situation in Saudi Arabia.
An analysis published by Reuters on October 28 highlighted the scale of disruptions at Saudi airports, saying nearly 86 percent of scheduled flights at Riyadh airport had been cancelled between October 8 and 25.
KM Mozibul Hoque, chairman of Total Air Services Limited (TAS Group), the general sales agent for AirAsia and Kuwait Airways, believes the Middle East instability has also exposed Bangladesh’s aviation sector to increased risks.
He told Bonik Barta: “Various airlines are reducing flights, while many are postponing the launch of new services. Several flights carrying Umrah pilgrims have been cancelled in recent days. Following the cancellation of a flight scheduled for the 6th, passengers have had their travel dates pushed back by 15 days. Many of them have no money left, not even enough to cover food expenses. Meanwhile, the visas of many people working in Riyadh and surrounding areas are nearing expiry.”
Bangladesh’s airlines depend heavily on the Middle East, as shown by their lists of international destinations. Of Biman Bangladesh Airlines’ 24 international destinations, 10 are in the Middle East, including Dammam, Jeddah, Riyadh and Medina in Saudi Arabia; Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates; and Kuwait, Doha and Muscat. In other words, around 42 percent of Biman’s international destinations are in the region.
Of the 14 international destinations served by private carrier US-Bangla Airlines, seven are in the Middle East — Muscat, Doha, Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah and Riyadh.
This dependence has already begun to affect the country’s air passenger transport operations. Following recent attacks on airports in Saudi Arabia, Biman Bangladesh Airlines has adjusted its flight schedules to various destinations in the country, taking passenger safety and the overall situation into consideration. As part of these adjustments, regular flights on the Dhaka-Dammam-Dhaka route will resume on November 7. But in view of passenger safety and security, flights on the route will operate during daytime every day until further notice. Meanwhile, flights on the Dhaka-Riyadh-Dhaka route will remain suspended until further notice.
In its regular update on November 3, the Bangladesh Civil Aviation Authority (CAAB) said 171 direct and transit flights on Bangladesh-Saudi Arabia routes had been affected so far due to limited operations at Saudi airports. A total of 23,077 passengers have been directly affected. Of the disrupted flights, 94 were direct services and 77 were transit flights.
Among direct flights, Biman Bangladesh Airlines was the worst affected, with 45 services disrupted, accounting for around 48 percent of all affected direct flights. Saudi Airlines had 21 flights affected, Riyadh Airways 18 and US-Bangla Airlines 10.
Biman said passengers could use Jeddah and Medina airports in emergencies. Since October 16, the airline has been operating two flights daily on the Dhaka-Jeddah route. Regular flights are also operating on the Dhaka-Medina route. US-Bangla Airlines, meanwhile, suspended flights on the Dhaka-Riyadh-Dhaka route from October 10. Airline officials said services to Riyadh would resume only after airport authorities declare the airport safe.
Kamrul Islam, general manager (public relations) of US-Bangla Airlines, has voiced concerns over potential losses for Bangladesh’s airlines amid the Middle East instability.
He told Bonik Barta, “The impact of the Middle East instability won’t be confined to the aviation sector. If the situation persists for a long time, it’ll also affect the country’s remittance inflows. The entire economy will feel the impact. If tensions between Iran and the Gulf countries flare up again and the crisis in Saudi Arabia drags on, expatriate workers will be the worst affected.”
Disruptions at transit hubs in the Middle East are also creating uncertainty for Bangladeshi travellers. A significant number of passengers travelling to Europe and the United States transit through Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi. Disruptions at these airports could lead to changes in connecting flights, travel delays and higher airfares.
According to IATA’s forecast, passenger traffic in the Middle East could contract by 11.4 percent in 2026. The loss of transfer or connecting passengers is one of the main reasons behind this projected decline. As Middle Eastern airlines account for around 13 percent of global air cargo capacity, disruptions in the region are also putting pressure on international freight transport.
KM Mozibul Hoque has stressed the importance of using alternative airports and increasing flight frequencies to address the crisis. He said, “Where Biman currently operates one flight, a special request could be made to the Saudi authorities to allow four. If flight frequencies to airports such as Taif and Medina increase, workers could travel by road from there to their workplaces. Such a decision could be taken immediately through government-to-government discussions.”
Citing Kuwait as an example of an alternative arrangement, he said: “At the height of the war, flights were operated from Dammam in Saudi Arabia instead of flying directly to Kuwait, with passengers travelling the remaining distance by road.” In his view, it is essential to have multiple alternative arrangements in place in advance, combining air and road transport.
As the Middle East is one of Bangladesh’s major labour markets, the crisis could affect not only air passenger transport but also the broader economy. Millions of Bangladeshis work in the region, and air travel is crucial for commuting to their workplaces, returning home after leave and sending new workers abroad. Disruptions at Saudi airports have forced passengers to use alternative airports and change their travel plans, increasing travel time and costs. At the same time, issues such as visa validity, joining workplaces and travelling for Umrah are also facing uncertainty.
Despite repeated attempts to contact him, no comment was obtained from Kaizer Sohel Ahmed, managing director and chief executive officer of Biman Bangladesh Airlines. When approached for comment, the airline’s General Manager (Public Relations) Shahnoor Ahmad asked for written questions. Questions were sent twice, on October 31 and November 1, but no response was received. When contacted again yesterday, he said the airline authorities would be able to provide a response “tomorrow” (today).