Bangladesh’s goods exports contracted 2.02 percent in the first ten months of the ongoing 2025–26 fiscal year through April, according to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Ready‑made garments, the country’s biggest export, fell 2.82 percent. Agricultural products, another of the top‑five sector, dropped 4.69 percent.

The import side tells a similar story. Central bank data for the first nine months of the fiscal year show letters of credit for consumer goods slipped 0.19 percent. Capital machinery LCs declined 3.07 percent, industrial raw material LCs fell 2.67 percent and back‑to‑back LCs plunged 10.95 percent.

The twin downturns signal a loss of economic momentum, according to observers. Trade analysts argue the EPB’s ten‑month export slide is more than a numerical setback; it reflects the global and domestic pressures bearing down on the economy.

A global slowdown, particularly softer demand in Europe and North America, struck ready‑made garments directly. A simultaneous energy crunch, rising input costs and dollar‑market turbulence have disrupted production and supply chains, eroding the competitiveness of Bangladesh’s export‑facing industries.

Dr Selim Raihan, a professor of economics at the University of Dhaka and executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), told Bonik Barta the broad‑based weakness across trade flows amounts to a critical signal for policymakers. “There’s a risk that the import downturn will, over time, impair the country’s production and export capacity,” he said. He urged export‑market diversification, lower production costs and investment‑friendly policies to address the decline.

The slide in imports of industrial raw materials, consumer goods and capital machinery points to entrepreneurs’ reluctance to expand production, a deceleration in new investment and weaker consumer demand, according to experts. The drop in capital machinery LCs, in particular, signals slower industrialisation ahead. The contraction in back‑to‑back LCs serves as an indirect gauge of falling orders in export‑oriented industries.

Industrialists say the sector has been under strain for several years. Private‑sector credit growth has slumped to 6.03 percent. Fuel price rises, high interest rates and steeper logistics costs are squeezing the industrial sector. Slower execution of public development projects has also eroded demand for construction materials such as steel and cement.

“We don’t need a big growth right now,” Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI), told Bonik Barta. “The government must focus above all on creating an environment where existing industrial and service sectors can at least survive.”

The EPB found a bright spot in April’s single‑month figures, however. Goods exports in April this year crossed $4 billion, a jump of 32.92 percent over the same month a year earlier. The bureau declared the data broke an eight‑month negative streak and amounted to an extraordinary comeback. It argued that stability in the industrial sector and expansion in global markets were returning the economy to a stronger footing.

Explaining the revised numbers on Sunday, the EPB said the recovery reflected renewed global demand and the capability of Bangladesh’s export industries. The upward trend was also visible month‑on‑month: April exports rose 15.20 percent from March’s $3.48 billion. This sustained improvement, EPB said, signalled durable growth and a positive shift in trade conditions.

Merchandise exports in the first ten months of FY 2025–26 reached $39.39 billion, a slim 2.02 percent below the $40.2 billion recorded a year earlier, according to EPB. The bureau said April’s upswing marked a decisive turn, creating a strong chance the shortfall will be erased in the months ahead.

Ready‑made garments retained their dominance as the economy’s mainstay. RMG exports in July–April totalled $31.71 billion, a decline of 2.82 percent. April alone saw a surge of 31.21 percent.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), attributed the April bounce to deferred shipments rather than rising demand. “The growth in garment exports we saw in April was largely because of the low export volume in the previous month,” he told Bonik Barta. “Factories closed for nearly ten days around Eid‑ul‑Fitr in March. That disrupted production and pushed shipments into April.”

Adding that no factory received extra orders, nor did buyer pressure suddenly build up, he cautioned that another lengthy holiday later in May could again drag exports lower and that the genuine export trend would not emerge until July. “The Eid effect in May can temporarily lift exports in June,” he added.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told Bonik Barta: “The US tariffs are the primary reason exports began to fall from August onward. Then there was the Bangladesh context. Buyers were worried about whether elections would take place at all, and about the post‑election law‑and‑order situation, especially from January to March.”

Khan linked the import decline directly to export performance. “Imports depend on exports,” he said. “If export projections and purchase orders are low, imports will be low as well. Raw material price swings also matter. Before the Middle East conflict, garment raw material prices were broadly stable. Exports have fallen, and imports have fallen with them.”

The BGMEA president attributed April’s leap in RMG exports to a post‑election return of buyer confidence and policy backing from the government. He added: “If we compare, April 2025 included at least six days of Eid leave. Without that, growth might have touched double digits. But there’s no way it could have reached 31 percent. The surge was driven by buyers regaining trust after the election and the government beginning to offer policy support.”

Policymakers blame geopolitical instability for the trade headwinds. Two major wars are underway, they note. The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s fuel oil transits, is now gripped by a form of stalemate. The combined effect, they argue, is ricocheting through global trade.

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir told Bonik Barta: “There are two wars going on in the world right now; that have to be factored in when analysing the current situation. The war over the past two months has been exactly in a region with a critical sea‑lane. The strait that transports 20 percent of the world’s fuel oil is now blocked. That’s having a huge cumulative impact on the economy.”

The commerce minister cautioned, “Definitive conclusions can’t be drawn from recent data during such an exceptional period. Once the war stops and stability returns, the situation will normalise.”