The Middle East remains the main source of Bangladesh’s crude and refined oil imports. The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) procures most petroleum products from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Bangladesh also imports liquefied natural gas under long-term deals with Qatar and Oman.

Imports meet about 65–70 percent of the country’s demand for LNG, crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas. For LNG and crude, Bangladesh relies primarily on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Industry insiders warn that escalating US–Iran tensions in the Middle East could severely disrupt Bangladesh’s energy supply chain and the financial sector. Last night, Reuters cited an official from the European Union Naval Mission Aspides as saying ships were receiving VHF transmissions from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warning that no vessel would be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Subsequently, several tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trading sources said on Saturday.

“Our ships will stay put for several days,” one top executive at a major trading desk said. Satellite images from tanker trackers showed vessels backed up next to big ports, such as Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, and not moving through Hormuz.

The British Navy said Iran’s orders were not legally binding and advised vessels to transit with caution.

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not completely stopped but disruptions are building rapidly, shipbroker Poten & Partners said in a note to clients.

The tanker association INTERTANKO said the US Navy had warned against navigation in the area — the whole of the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz — saying it could not guarantee the safety of shipping.

Some 20 percent of global oil, including from producers Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran, passes through Hormuz along with large volumes of Qatari LNG, making it the world’s most critical oil transit route linking Gulf producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Additionally, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on countries across the Middle East and Gulf in retaliation for the joint US–Israeli strikes on several Iranian cities yesterday. Its missiles hit Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. As fighting intensified, several states in the region closed their airspace.

Energy expert Professor M Tamim, vice-chancellor of Independent University Bangladesh, told Bonik Barta: “If the war continues across the Middle East and Gulf countries, oil prices will rise. That’ll negatively impact Bangladesh’s economy. LNG supply from Qatar may also be disrupted, potentially creating a serious gas shortage in the country.”

Nearly 40 percent of annual LNG cargoes come from Qatar. Under a 15-year deal, imports range from 1.8 million to 2.5 million tonnes a year. Amid the turmoil, Petrobangla said it was closely monitoring supply. Officials declined to immediately say what contingency steps they would take if shipping routes became unsafe or inaccessible.

Petrobangla Director (Operation and Mines) Engineer Md Rafiqul Islam told Bonik Barta: “Conflict has begun in the Middle East. We import LNG from Qatar. If the route used for LNG shipments is closed, it’ll heighten our concerns. We’re monitoring the situation round the clock and have instructed relevant officials to remain vigilant.”

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are Bangladesh’s long-term crude suppliers. BPC buys Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia and Murban crude from the UAE. Combined imports from the two total about 1.5 million tonnes a year.

BPC officials have not ruled out a serious threat to the fuel supply system if the conflict widens and drags on. They claimed, however, that current reserves and supplies remain stable.

Asked about energy security, BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told Bonik Barta: “There’ll be no problem with refined fuel oil until June. In this regard, we’re currently on the safe side. Refined fuel is coming from Malaysia, China, Singapore and Indonesia. The Strait of Hormuz has no involvement in imports from these countries.”

The domestic market needs at least 1.4 million tonnes of LPG a year, or about 120,000 tonnes a month, with a persistent LPG shortage since January. Business leaders warn that a worsening conflict could deepen the crisis.

Gas is also central to Bangladesh’s power generation, and Qatar is a key supplier. Stakeholders warn that any major disruption to gas supplies could increase load-shedding during the coming summer.

Azam J Chowdhury, chairman of East Coast Group, told Bonik Barta: “Bangladesh imports gas, LPG, and crude oil from various Middle Eastern countries. This region is a major source of our energy. A significant portion of these shipments passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If the war becomes prolonged, Bangladesh’s supply chain will face serious disruption. At the same time, energy prices may also increase. The government should prepare accordingly. In particular, advance communication could be maintained with countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia.”

The government said it is monitoring the Middle East conflict and its impact on the energy sector. The Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is drafting contingency plans to safeguard supplies if the crisis persists. Iqbal Hasan Mahmud, the minister in charge of the ministry, told Bonik Barta: “The crisis that has emerged in the Middle East and Gulf region isn’t something good. We’re monitoring the situation and have called a meeting tomorrow (today) to review the overall issues. To ensure that no crisis emerges in Bangladesh’s energy sector, plans to import from alternative sources are also being considered.”