The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising fuel costs, and uncertainty in travel demand are putting pressure on air routes across South and Southeast Asia. Airlines have reduced flight frequencies on routes to Dhaka, Nepal, and Thailand. Major international carriers are also adjusting their summer schedules to cope with rising operational costs and fluctuating passenger demand. Notably, Indian carriers such as IndiGo and Air India have already begun scaling back services. Air India has also decreased its flights on the Dhaka route.
Increasing fuel prices are the primary reason behind these measures, industry insiders say. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have increased due to high global fuel prices, which in turn have driven up airfares beyond the reach of many passengers. Leisure travellers, in particular, are postponing trips due to higher ticket prices. Airlines are also cutting flights on Southeast Asian routes due to lower passenger demand.
Commenting on the issue, KM Mozibul Hoque, Chairman of TAS Aviation Group, told Bonik Barta, “There are mainly three reasons behind the reduction in flights. First, safety concerns — passengers are avoiding travel unless necessary. The Middle East is our major hub. 142 flights arrive in Bangladesh weekly from the United Arab Emirates alone. Among them, around 60 percent of passengers are onward travellers. They no longer consider the Middle East safe for transit. Attacks at various airports have further eroded confidence.”
“Second, Gulf countries have to restrict airspace access for foreign carriers until a permanent ceasefire. But the same limitations aren’t applicable to local carriers. Third, the rising jet fuel cost is another major factor. Air India’s 60–70 percent passengers from Bangladesh are Middle East-bound. For example, the Dhaka–Delhi route connects to destinations like Dubai, Qatar, and Kuwait. Airlines have cut flights due to these route disruptions,” he added.
Even if regular flight operations resume, he stated, it will take time for a normalised situation. “The flight reduction will create a significant backlog. Even after normal operations resume, it may take at least a year to clear this backlog. From a business perspective, this will cause substantial losses,” he further added.
Indian carriers’ reduction flight has also caused inconvenience for Bangladeshi passengers. Many are now forced to travel via Indian hubs such as Mumbai and Delhi to reach their final destinations, increasing both travel time and costs. The situation is particularly difficult for passengers travelling to West Asia, where limited direct flights from Bangladesh have increased reliance on connecting flights. Ongoing instability in the Gulf region has further complicated air travel between South Asia and the Middle East. This also leads to uncertainty and disruptions in flight schedules and travel plans.
Meanwhile, the Middle East war has created volatility in global fuel oil prices. In this context, jet fuel prices in the country have been increased in two phases, putting pressure on the aviation sector and raising travel costs for passengers.
In the first phase, the jet fuel price was increased by nearly BDT 90 per litre in a single jump on March 24, according to relevant sources. Later, in the second phase on April 7, it was raised by an additional BDT 24.79 per litre. As a result, jet fuel prices surged by a total of 182 percent within just two weeks. This marks an unprecedented increase in recent times.
Currently, the jet fuel price for domestic flights has been set at BDT 227.08 per litre. The price stands at around USD 1.48 per litre for international flights.
In Europe, jet fuel prices also reached a record high last week, rising to USD 1,838 per tonne, compared to just USD 831 before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. If normal trade through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored quickly, there are concerns that fuel shortages could emerge at several European airports within three weeks. Some airlines have already warned that if the conflict persists, summer flight operations across Europe could face serious disruptions.
Due to this sharp increase in fuel prices, airlines’ operating costs have risen significantly. As a result, many carriers are being forced to increase fares while also reducing flight frequencies to ease expenses. This trend is particularly noticeable on routes with lower passenger demand.
Industry insiders note that since jet fuel constitutes the largest operating cost for airlines, any increase directly impacts ticket prices. Domestic airfares have already risen by an average of around BDT 1,000. Meanwhile, international ticket prices have also increased by more than BDT 5,000.
Airfares may rise further if the current situation continues, making travel increasingly unaffordable for ordinary passengers, analysts noted. At the same time, reduced flight numbers could lead to greater uncertainty in travel planning.
Shiblul Azam Qureshi, former president of the Tour Operators Association of Bangladesh (TOAB), told Bonik Barta, “The global fuel market has faced instability due to the ongoing Middle East war, which is directly impacting the aviation sector. To cope with fuel shortages and rising costs, many airlines, including Indian carriers, have reduced flights to Bangladesh. This is shrinking passenger capacity on international routes. Travel demand is also declining because of high fares.”
The tourism sector, he added, along with travel agencies, tour operators, and related service industries, is also under pressure. “The negative impact on the country’s tourism and aviation sectors could deepen further if the situation persists, which could delay the recovery process,” he said.
The impact of rising fuel prices has affected both domestic and international routes. Airlines are being compelled to impose fuel surcharges, significantly increasing ticket prices. Industry stakeholders note that when fuel prices were around USD 80 per barrel, nearly half of the seats were sold at lower fares.
ATF price for international and charter flights has now doubled, although state-owned oil companies have capped the price increase for domestic flights at 25 percent in April. The continued rise in jet fuel prices will further squeeze the profit of airlines in the Asia-Pacific region, analysts from S&P Global Ratings say.
The effects of the Middle East crisis and rising fuel costs are not limited to international routes; domestic flights are also being impacted. Due to the ongoing conflict, flights cancellation continues on the routes from Dhaka to several Middle Eastern countries. Since February 28, when seven Middle Eastern countries — Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan — closed their airspace, the number of cancelled flights from Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka has exceeded one thousand.
In total, 1,060 international flights have been cancelled over the past one and a half months, according to the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB).
Statistical analysis shows that at the peak of the crisis, 339 flights were cancelled from February 28 to March 9. This records the highest number of flight cancellations. This was followed by 275 cancellations between March 10 and 19, and 226 between March 20 and 29.
Although the intensity of the crisis has somewhat eased, 160 flight cancellations have been recorded between March 30 and April 8, and another 60 flights between April 9 and 12. These disruptions have caused hardship for passengers travelling to Middle East. While some airlines have attempted to operate flights via alternative routes, they have suspended many schedules due to increased travel time and higher fuel costs.
A rapid improvement in the situation is unlikely in the coming days, analysts suggest. Instead, the trend of limited flights and higher fares may persist. Relevant stakeholders advised passengers travelling to Southeast Asia, West Asia, and the broader Middle East to keep in mind potential disruptions and longer travel times when making their plans.