The fiscal 2026–27 budget, unveiled in June, cut tax at source and advance income tax from a 5 percent ceiling to 0.5 percent on imports of roughly 60 essential commodities including rice, wheat, potatoes, onions, garlic, ginger, salt, sugar and edible oil. That reduction kept wholesale prices for the staples broadly stable through late June and into July. From early August, however, adverse weather, costlier transport driven by energy shortages and turmoil in global supply chains began pushing wholesale prices higher. That increase is now transmitting directly into retail markets across the country.

Traders remain entitled to reclaim advance income tax under existing regulations, though authorities offset the sums against other tax and customs liabilities rather than issuing immediate refunds after sales. Because credit-dependent firms factor import taxes into product costing, the sharp reduction should have lowered retail prices.

A cluster of external and domestic pressures has nevertheless undermined that relief. Global freight rates have climbed, the war in Iran and the Russia–Ukraine conflict have both escalated, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively choked. Domestically, energy deficits have driven up production and transport costs for numerous goods, according to market participants, spurring a fresh rise in wholesale consumer prices in August.

At Khatunganj, Bangladesh’s main wholesale hub for imported consumer goods, prices for wheat, edible oil, sugar, chickpeas, coarse lentils, spices, garlic and onions have all climbed over the past eight to ten days.

The rise in wheat, sugar and edible oil prices has spilled into flour staples such as atta and maida. Export permits have also sparked bulk buying of fragrant rice, driving its price to a record high.

Monsoon rains routinely inflate production costs for vegetables, fish and poultry; as those foods grow pricier, low-income households are turning to pulses, driving up prices across that market, according to traders.

Data from several trading firms show loose palm oil, which changed hands at BDT 6,250–6,300 per maund (37.32 kg) six weeks ago, now sells for BDT 6,400. Super palm oil has gained BDT 100–120 to trade at up to BDT 6,600, while soybean oil has added BDT 150 to reach BDT 7,400. Traders say increasing global freight booking costs have already begun pushing up wholesale loose edible oil, even though the government has left official rates untouched.

Sugar has also rebounded to BDT 3,660 per maund after falling to BDT 3,450–3,480 during a prolonged slump in demand.

Wheat prices had hovered at BDT 1,280–1,300 per maund for months before surging over the past fortnight to BDT 1,450, later settling at BDT 1,430–1,435. That jump increased costs for flour mills, which responded by raising prices on loose and packaged atta and maida by BDT 4–5 per kilogramme.

Global grain markets experienced sharp volatility following the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war in February 2022. A recent escalation in fighting has heightened risks to Black Sea routes, driving international wheat prices higher. With international wheat hitting a two-year high, domestic prices have risen by roughly BDT 150 per maund over the past few days.

Russia and Ukraine together supply 28 percent of global wheat, and market participants warn that a prolonged conflict will drive prices higher still.

Importers say the prolonged war had previously settled into an unwritten equilibrium across production, trade and supply chains. The renewed intensity of fighting has now upended that stability and created deep uncertainty over exports. Though harvest is underway in the Black Sea region, the threat of disruption during its peak shipping window is prompting buyers worldwide to lock in alternative supplies. That buying rush rapidly drove international prices to record highs, transmitting the shock directly to Bangladesh, according to importers.

“The surge in global wheat prices is less than a month old, and imported grain takes several months to arrive. But domestic wheat and flour prices have already shot up,” said SM Nazer Hossain, central vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh.

“Monsoon rains push up demand for pulses as vegetable supplies shrink. The budget briefly stabilised the market by lowering taxes on food imports. But importers and wholesalers are now using the war and the demand spike to inflate prices across consumer goods.”

Data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh confirms the increase in wheat prices has begun lifting retail flour prices. Over the past month, loose white atta has risen roughly 4.4 percent to BDT 45–50 per kilogramme, while packaged atta has jumped 8.7 percent to BDT 60–65. Loose maida has gained 4.35 percent to BDT 60, with packaged maida adding 3.7 percent to reach BDT 65–75.

Year-on-year figures show a far steeper climb: loose atta is up 11.76 percent, packaged atta 19.05 percent, loose maida 9.09 percent and packaged maida 3.7 percent.

Shatadal Mondal, TCB assistant director for market data, told Bonik Barta the agency routinely tracks key commodity markets and alerts authorities to price shifts. “We’ve notified the commerce ministry and other relevant departments of recent price rises across several commodities,” he said.

Wheat futures for soft red winter (SRW) wheat traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are currently priced at $6.81 a bushel (27.22 kg). Futures contracts for delivery in the coming months also point to higher prices. September delivery is priced at $6.59 a bushel, December at $6.76, March 2027 at $6.91 and May at $6.98.

Wheat prices would normally be expected to fall during the harvest season in the Black Sea region, including Russia and Ukraine. Instead, they are rising. With futures now at a two-year high, importers and traders fear the increase will pressure Bangladesh’s domestic market.

Abul Bashar Chowdhury, chairman of grain importer BSM Group, told Bonik Barta: “Wheat produced in the Russia–Ukraine region accounts for more than a quarter of global demand. Supply chains gradually reopened after the war between the two countries began, using various workarounds. The latest escalation, however, is putting Black Sea grain shipments at risk, pushing up freight costs and insurance premiums.”

He added: “The involvement of the Houthis in the Middle East conflict is also likely to disrupt grain supply chains as the crisis around the Red Sea deepens. Buyers seeking to avoid disruptions have turned to alternative sources, driving up global prices.”

Chowdhury warned that those same global pressures would soon spill into corn and pulse markets as well.

Global wheat markets remained quiet through the first four months of 2026, with prices hovering between $5.20 and $5.60 a bushel from January to April. Prices began increasing in May, fed by harvest doubts in several producing nations, dry weather and rising risks to Black Sea shipments. That momentum carried through June before a sharp escalation in the Russia–Ukraine war in July pushed wheat to a two-year high.

“Global wheat prices have risen sharply. A cargo we bought earlier at $260 per tonne now costs close to $290,” Mohammed Amirul Haque, managing director of Delta Agrofood Industries, told Bonik Barta. “Renewed military tension between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region is playing a part in driving the surge. Freight costs for importers have jumped. Because this region forms one of the world’s most critical grain supply corridors, the conflict has rattled the wider commodities market.”