Ongoing war in the Middle East has roiled global markets for energy and fertilisers, adding pressure to import-dependent Bangladesh. The country imports most of its fertiliser from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, China, Russia and Canada. Because of an ongoing gas shortage in the country — the key feedstock — five domestic fertiliser plants are now shut. Local output already meets only a fraction of demand and the recent closures threaten to further increase reliance on overseas suppliers.
Internationally, fertiliser markets are highly uncertain because of a crunch in gas supply, volatile prices, a shortage of vessels and rising freight and premium charges. If this persists, agricultural economists warn Bangladesh could face severe challenges importing fertiliser, threatening farm output and food security.
Domestic fertiliser demand is about 6 million tonnes annually, with imports and management handled by the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) and the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC). The main suppliers of urea are BCIC’s own factories and the private Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company (KAFCO). In addition, China and Morocco are major sources for urea and triple superphosphate (TSP).
Experts say that instability in the Middle East is disrupting natural gas markets as well as energy supplies. With natural gas the main feedstock for urea, higher prices for the fuel push up international fertiliser prices as well, meaning import-reliant Bangladesh could face a higher bill.
The country imports large volumes of urea, triple superphosphate (TSP), di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and muriate of potash (MOP) every year. Its main sources are Saudi Arabia, Morocco, China, Canada and Russia. In DAP, Saudi Arabia is considered the most reliable partner, meeting about a third of Bangladesh’s demand. Morocco and China are major sources for TSP and urea. Morocco’s OCP Group in particular supplies large quantities of TSP and DAP. Russia is a key supplier of MOP, while Canada is also a significant source of potash and other fertilisers.
Officials at the agriculture ministry said all planned fertiliser imports from the Middle East for the 2025-26 fiscal year have already arrived, leaving stocks sufficient to see the country through the current Boro season. They acknowledged, however, that a prolonged disruption in global fertiliser markets would eventually have a major impact on Bangladesh.
Md Khorshed Alam, joint secretary of the fertiliser management and monitoring branch at the agriculture ministry, told Bonik Barta: “Current fertiliser stocks stand at 1.68 million tonnes. This includes 481,000 tonnes of urea, 383,000 tonnes of TSP, 471,000 tonnes of DAP and 349,000 tonnes of MOP. These supplies will be sufficient to cover demand until May or June.”
With oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz halted due to the conflict, markets for LNG, crude oil and refined fuels have already been roiled. International market monitors warn that supplies of nitrogen-based urea and its feedstocks will also come under severe threat. Freight rates for LNG carriers moving fuel and fertiliser have already jumped 650 percent to nearly $300,000 per day.
Analysts say that the immediate impact on Bangladesh, if sources of fertiliser and its raw materials are cut off, would be limited. But a prolonged disruption would trigger knock-on effects across agriculture and push up food prices, potentially threatening food security.
Agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam told Bonik Barta: “War in the Middle East has created a fertiliser shortage in international markets. Prices have shifted dramatically and could rise further unless the fighting stops. Domestically, there are already shortages this Boro season. Farmers are not getting the fertiliser they need and are having to buy at inflated prices. If the war drags on, the negative impact will be felt not just in energy but also in agriculture. Prolonged closure of our own fertiliser plants in this situation would be disastrous for farming.”
The Guardian reported that a US-Israeli conflict with Iran has halted shipments of ammonia and nitrogen — both used in fertiliser production — through the Strait of Hormuz, severely affecting global output. Large fertiliser plants in the Gulf region have shut, and with supply chains broken, those trends have pushed international prices higher.
CRU, a global fertiliser, mining and metals research group, sets benchmark prices for fertilisers worldwide. It said urea prices have jumped more than 25 percent since the US and Israel began striking Iran. Urea traded at $484 to $490 per tonne last week; it has now risen to $625. In its latest data, published on March 3, prices for all fertiliser types had increased by an average of more than 12 percent.
World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) data shows Iran is the world’s fourth-largest urea exporter — after Russia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Qatar, meanwhile, is a major exporter of gas, the key urea feedstock. It has closed its Ras Laffan gas field facility after a recent drone strike.
Citing multiple sources, The Guardian reported that between a quarter and a third of global fertiliser feedstocks are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which also carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and gas. The effective closure of the strait is disrupting shipments of ammonia and nitrogen, and will hit sulphur output, an essential plant nutrient. If importing countries do not receive fertiliser inputs on time, farmers may face higher prices, be forced to cut fertiliser use or even switch crops.
BCIC is the state fertiliser producer. It operates five urea plants and one plant each for DAP and TSP. A multinational company based in Chattogram also produces urea. On Wednesday, five urea plants — one private and four public — were shut “temporarily” due to gas shortage, triggering fresh concerns over supplies for the ongoing Boro season.
According to WITS data, Bangladesh imported $550.1 million worth of fertiliser from Saudi Arabia and Qatar in 2024. In October last year, the country contracted to import 630,000 tonnes of urea from Saudi Arabia’s SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company for the ongoing 2025-26 fiscal year. That total comprises 330,000 tonnes under a regular agreement and an additional 300,000 tonnes to cover emergencies and shortfalls from domestic plants.
An additional chief chemist at BCIC, speaking on condition of anonymity, explained that the corporation receives LNG, uses it to produce ammonia and then converts that to natural gas to make urea. Most of that LNG is imported from the Middle East. With supply chains disrupted by the conflict, production now remains halted.
Industry insiders say more than half of Bangladesh’s annual fertiliser demand falls in the Robi and Boro seasons. Winter vegetables and Boro rice, planted in late winter, account for 3.5 million to 4 million tonnes of fertiliser use. The winter vegetable season is nearly over, and Boro transplanting is also complete. Further fertiliser will now be needed for the rice crop. Keeping fertiliser supply chains intact is therefore critical now, along with advance preparation for the next growing season. Agricultural economists advise importing from alternative sources and boosting domestic output if necessary.
Despite global fears that the Middle East crisis will disrupt fertiliser production and threaten food output, top agriculture ministry officials said Bangladesh will not face an immediate shortage. Their assessment is that within 15-20 days, Boro rice will no longer require fertiliser. Even with domestic plants temporarily shut, they argue that there is no risk to supply.
Asked about the impact on agriculture, Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul I Mohammad told Bonik Barta: “The Middle East conflict is beginning to affect energy markets worldwide. We have no fertiliser shortage at this moment, and that’s why I’m confident the plant closures will have no effect. We’re already preparing to ensure the next season isn’t affected.”
The Middle East crisis has already begun to hit Bangladesh’s fuel and gas supplies hard. Rationing has been imposed at petrol pumps. The public has also been urged to limit private car use. Government buildings, agencies and corporations have been told to cut unnecessary lighting and reduce air conditioning use. LNG imported from the international market has already been scaled back in the national grid.