The most critical window for Bangladesh to achieve its demographic dividend is closing rapidly. Due to declining birth rates and rising life expectancy, the proportion of the working-age population has stabilised and is beginning to gradually decline, while the number of elderly people is increasing rapidly. Simultaneously, the country’s greatest asset — its human resources — is not being fully utilised due to the lack of adequate job creation, skill gaps and a vast number of youths remaining unemployed or outside of training for long periods. According to experts, if this situation persists, the country will face economic pressure related to an ageing population before it can fully capitalise on its demographic dividend.
Today, July 11, is World Population Day. This year, the day is being observed at a time when various studies and forecasts are signalling major shifts in Bangladesh’s population structure. Bangladesh’s population in 2025 is approximately 175.7 million. About two-thirds of this population is of working age, according to data from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Those aged 15–59 currently make up about 62 percent of the total population, while the proportion of people aged 60 or older is 9.3 percent. The population aged 15–64 stands at approximately 65 percent. But these ratios will change rapidly in the coming years. UNFPA predicts that by 2050, more than 13 percent of the country’s population will be over the age of 60.
The demographic dividend refers to a period when the number of working-age individuals exceeds the number of dependent children and the elderly. Investing in education, health, skills and employment during this period creates an opportunity for the economy to advance rapidly. In Bangladesh, this window of opportunity is now in its final phase. UNFPA states that the first demographic dividend, gained through the growth of the working-age population, reached its peak in the early 2020s. From here on, the share of the working-age population will gradually decrease, and elderly dependency will increase.
Professor Nuruzzaman Haque of the Department of Population Science & Human Resource Development at Rajshahi University told Bonik Barta, “According to various surveys and reports, the average life expectancy of the country’s population is increasing. In contrast, the women’s fertility rate is declining. When the number of children decreases, it eventually impacts the youth population. The number of people aged above 59 is now increasing compared to those in the 15-59 age group. So we estimate that by around 2031-32, we’ll no longer have the benefits of the demographic dividend. By then, the country will move rapidly toward an ageing society.”
According to experts, the biggest cause for concern is the inability to integrate a massive number of youths into productive employment. In 2022, 41 percent of the country’s youth were not engaged in education, employment or training (NEET) — a figure that stood at 62 percent for young women, according to UNFPA data. In other words, a vast number of young men and women are being sidelined from productivity before they can even become part of the workforce.
BBS estimates the number of unemployed people in the country at 2.61 million. World Bank data, however, suggests that out of approximately 14 million youths who entered the labour market over the last decade, only 8.7 million secured employment. The remaining 5.3 million have remained outside the workforce.
Labour market analysts believe that while there is a demand for skilled manpower in the industrial and service sectors, there is a significant mismatch between education and training and the actual labour market. Unemployment among educated youth is consequently rising, while a shortage of skilled manpower persists.
The United Nations’ World Population Highlights 2026 report, meanwhile, states that Bangladesh’s youth population has already reached near its peak. While the number of people aged 15 to 24 was 33.3 million last year, it is projected to drop to 31 million by 2050. The share of youth in the total population will also decrease from 18.9 percent to 14.4 percent.
Due to a declining birth rate and increasing life expectancy, Bangladesh is rapidly transforming into an ageing society. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Bangladesh is currently 2.1 percent, meaning, on average, a woman gives birth to two children, according to UNFPA data. While over 65 percent of the population is aged 15–64, the number of people above this age range is consistently increasing. It is not just the UN or the BBS; the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also projected an increase in the elderly population in the country. In its forecast, the agency states that by 2050, the proportion of the population aged 60 or older could exceed 30 percent.
Experts say that the number of elderly people will increase rapidly over the next two decades. This will create additional pressure on healthcare, long-term care, pensions, social security and government expenditure. If preparations are not made in these sectors starting now, it could create significant pressure on the economy.
Professor Mohammad Mainul Islam of the Department of Population Sciences at the University of Dhaka believes that if the country’s working-age population is not utilised immediately, it could become a “demographic burden” rather than a “demographic dividend.” He told Bonik Barta, “At this moment, we’re at risk of facing a ‘demographic disaster’ or a ‘demographic burden’ instead of a demographic dividend. If employment can’t be created, the problem will worsen. Employment must be generated in the private sector alongside the government. Otherwise, inequality will increase.”
Noting that Bangladesh is now one of the countries in South Asia with the fastest-growing elderly population, he said, “Currently, one in every 10 people in the country is over 60 years old. The proportion of people over 65 is close to 8 percent. By 2027 or 2028, Bangladesh will transform into an ‘ageing society’”
“Countries like Japan became developed first and then became ageing societies. But the reality for Bangladesh is different. We’ll rapidly move into an ageing society, but by then, our per capita income, income growth or GDP growth won’t be at Japan’s level. This will become a major challenge for us. At this moment, we need a clear and integrated population plan,” Professor Mainul Islam further added. He believes that it is essential to establish a separate commission or ministry for proper planning in this regard.
The demographic dividend does not depend solely on the age structure of the population; it also relies on how healthy, skilled and productive that population is. Despite declining child mortality in the country over the last two decades, malnutrition remains a major challenge. Children who grow up stunted, underweight and lacking essential nutrition cannot become skilled human resources in the future. Children suffering from malnutrition are at a higher risk of dying from infectious diseases. Deficiencies in maternal nutrition, low birth weight, poverty, lack of safe food and inequality in healthcare are deepening this crisis.
According to the Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2024, 11.9 percent of Bangladesh’s population suffers from malnutrition. Experts have now identified malnutrition as a major reason behind the increase in child deaths from measles and pneumonia. According to them, poverty is one of the main causes of malnutrition among children. A 2025 study by the private research institution Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) shows that the poverty rate in the country has risen to 27.93 percent, while World Bank data places it at 21.4 percent.
Professor Dr Nazma Shaheen of the Institute of Nutrition and Food Science at the University of Dhaka explains that childhood malnutrition impacts individuals when they reach working age. She told Bonik Barta, “There’s a direct correlation between nutrition/malnutrition and a person’s immune system. When a child suffers from malnutrition, it negatively impacts their physical development, immune system, overall functionality and cognitive ability. Consequently, children suffering from malnutrition are easily infected by diseases, especially infectious or contagious ones. The impacts of childhood malnutrition can have multidimensional effects once the individual reaches working age. When a girl who grew up malnourished becomes a mother, the chances of her child being healthy and normal are low. In this way, malnutrition spreads from one generation to the next. It’s like a vicious cycle.”
Experts, however, note that Bangladesh still has another significant potential: the “gender dividend.” In other words, if women can be more actively integrated into education, skill development and employment, it could bring new momentum to the economy. Yet, child marriage, adolescent motherhood, wage discrimination and various workplace obstacles remain major barriers to women’s full participation.
The theme for this year’s World Population Day is “Realising the hopes and aspirations of young people—today and for the future.” In a message given on the occasion of the day, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman stated, “One of the key goals of our development journey is to transform the potential of our youth into a driving force for national progress. To that end, the government is implementing multidimensional initiatives by integrating education, skill development, employment, healthcare and family planning.”
The head of government mentioned that the youth are the primary strength of an IT-dependent and knowledge-based economy. He said, “The government is working tirelessly to build a prosperous, inclusive and self-reliant Bangladesh by transforming demographic potential into a force for sustainable development, human resource development, expansion of universal healthcare, strengthening family planning activities, and empowering women and the youth. If every young man and woman gets equal opportunities to grow up healthy, educated, skilled and confident, they’ll become the main driving force for building a promising, prosperous and developed Bangladesh of the future.”
The prime minister further added, “Challenges like child marriage, adolescent motherhood and malnutrition remain significant barriers to the development and progress of our young generation. These problems aren’t just those of a single adolescent girl or a family; they have long-term impacts on human resource development, continuity of education, women’s empowerment, maternal and child health and national productivity.”