About 55 percent of Bangladesh’s total rice production comes from the Boro season. That is why experts consider Boro rice crucial for ensuring the country’s food security. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) maintains data on the amount of land in the country that is cultivated for Boro rice. However, questions have been raised about the reliability of the agency’s published data. A recent study found that the area of land used for Boro rice cultivation, calculated using satellite imagery technology, is 12 percent lower than the estimates provided by the BBS. As a result, stakeholders believe the BBS data inflates production figures by showing larger land areas.
Recently, the Bangladesh Journal of Agriculture published a study titled “Estimation of Boro Rice Area in Bangladesh Using Sentinel-2 Imagery and Machine Learning Algorithms.” The report was jointly released by Hasan Md Hamidur Rahman, Director of the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), and S G Hussain, Project Coordination and Partner Liaison of the CSRD Project at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. The study aimed to map Boro rice cultivated areas using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery (10-meter resolution), compare the performance of different machine learning algorithms, and develop a low-cost, accurate, and replicable framework for agricultural monitoring in Bangladesh.
The study collected satellite images from Google Earth covering the period between December 2020 and March 2021. Additionally, 606 field samples were gathered nationwide—205 from rice fields and 401 from non-rice fields—which included GPS data, photographs, and farmer interviews. Using four tested algorithms, the researchers calculated the area of Boro rice cultivation and compared the results with BBS data for FY 2020–21.
According to BBS, Boro rice was cultivated on 4,786,621 hectares in FY 2020–21. In contrast, the study found that under the CART algorithm, the area was 4,199,579 hectares—12 percent lower than BBS figures. Under the K-NN algorithm, the area was 3,840,586 hectares, 20 percent lower than BBS. The RF algorithm showed 2,959,609 hectares, a 38 percent difference. The SVM algorithm reported the lowest figure—2,402,961 hectares—50 percent less than BBS estimates.
Because the CART algorithm showed the smallest difference with government data, the study identified it as the most reliable. It noted that combining high-resolution satellite imagery with machine learning has proven effective in determining rice cultivation areas in a country like Bangladesh, where farmland is highly fragmented. The method can also be applied in other South and Southeast Asian countries. Integrating climate, soil, and agricultural management data could further improve the accuracy of yield forecasts.
Regarding the study, Hasan Md Hamidur Rahman, Director of the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, told Bonik Barta, “This type of research has never been done in the context of Bangladesh before. Satellite technology was used here. Further enrichment of the findings could be considered by collecting data on a broader and more extensive scale. Until now, we have relied on conventional methods of data collection. If modern technology can provide more accurate information, the government should prioritize that. Through SPARRSO, the government could also strengthen such research initiatives.”
Agricultural researchers said food grain production is not keeping pace with population growth in the country. Factors such as declining farmland, a lack of development and expansion of high-yield varieties, rising agricultural input costs, and farmers’ inability to earn proportionately are negatively affecting agricultural production.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, back in FY 2014–15, Bangladesh cultivated rice on 11.79 million hectares of land. By the 2020–21 fiscal year, this had dropped to 11.5 million hectares. In the latest recently concluded FY 2024–25, it fell further to 11.4 million hectares—a decline of nearly 2 percent over the past five years. Each year, farmland continues to shrink. In contrast, yield per hectare has increased by only 4 percent in five years, and rice production has grown by just 2 percent.
Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam told Bonik Barta, “The question of overestimating cultivated areas has come up before. It disrupts our food security. When production figures are inflated, the government cannot make proper plans. It cannot accurately assess available supply against demand or decide whether imports are needed. Sometimes, unexpected supply shortages emerge. When imports are delayed to meet that shortfall, food prices in the country rise.”
Jahangir Alam added that BBS has methodological limitations in estimating the amount of rice cultivation land. He noted, “They (BBS) also use satellite images. But it is not always possible to accurately identify rice-growing areas through satellites alone. So, field-level surveys are needed alongside satellite images. If both sources are combined and reports are prepared accordingly, the data gap will narrow. And these reports should be released along with crop production figures. If released long after, they serve no purpose for the public. Because, when provided immediately, policymakers can use the information to make plans.”
Questions over the reliability and accuracy of BBS data have persisted for years. A survey conducted jointly by BBS and the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) revealed that even more than one-third of users do not consider BBS data to be reliable. Academics, researchers, and representatives from financial institutions, government agencies, and development partners participated in the survey. Titled “User Satisfaction Survey 2024,” the study found that 22.16 percent of all users did not find BBS’s agriculture-related data credible.
According to BBS’s preliminary estimates, the total Boro cultivation area in FY 2023–24 was 4,877,775 hectares, with an assumed yield of 4.32 tons per hectare. And in FY 2022–23, the Boro cultivation area was 4,852,290 hectares, with a yield of 4.28 tons per hectare. In FY 2020–21, BBS estimated the Boro yield at 4.15 tons per hectare. For the year in question, the gap between BBS’s preliminary estimates and the research report’s findings was 587,042 hectares. Based on this land area difference, Boro production in FY 2020–21 should have been 2,438,572 tons lower.
Dr. Md Tofazzal Islam, founding Director and Professor at the Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (IBGE) of Gazipur Agricultural University, told Bonik Barta, “There are many questions regarding the credibility of agricultural statistics. In the past, there was a tendency to inflate agricultural land data to please the government. I can speak for my own area—as I have satellite image data for my union, which shows a 30 percent difference compared to official figures. Now high-resolution data is available through satellites. If used properly, data accuracy improves. We should move to such a system. But BBS has not yet adopted these modern methods, resulting in overestimated land figures. Statistics show yields rising every year. But in reality, this is not happening. Based on the total rice production figures, even if our current population were 25 percent higher, we should have had enough rice. Yet Bangladesh is now the world’s second-largest rice importer.”
Regarding the difference between BBS statistics and the findings of the research report, the agency’s Director General, Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, declined to comment immediately.
Md. Obaidur Rahman Mondol, Director (Field Wing) of the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), told Bonik Barta, “Different institutions use different methods. Some follow one process while calculating, others follow another. Some go to the field less directly. In the case of SPARRSO, there are some technological limitations. Their technology doesn’t capture small clusters, such as plots of 15–30 meters. So those areas do not appear in SPARRSO’s figures. That may explain some of the differences. Overall, efforts are underway to coordinate and address these issues.”