The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) proposes a lower quantity of fertiliser than the demand reported at the field level. The government then reduces the final allocation even further. An analysis of data from the past five fiscal years shows significant gaps at every stage, from assessing demand for urea, DAP, MOP and TSP to approving allocations. In some fiscal years, the gap between field-level demand and the approved allocation has reached nearly 800,000 tonnes.
The situation has raised questions about the method used to assess actual fertiliser demand. Industry stakeholders are questioning whether there are major inconsistencies in determining field-level demand and whether the DAE and the national coordination and advisory committee on fertiliser are conducting an adequate assessment. The DAE, however, does not consider the figures submitted from the field level to represent the final demand.
Field-level demand for urea, DAP, MOP and TSP combined was estimated at 6.87 million tonnes for the 2026–27 fiscal year. Against this, the DAE proposed a demand of around 5.84 million tonnes. The approved allocation eventually stood at 5.8 million tonnes, meaning the approved allocation was nearly 1.07 million tonnes lower than field-level demand. But the gap between the DAE’s proposed demand and the final allocation was comparatively small, at 44,200 tonnes.
For the current fiscal year, field-level demand for urea has been estimated at around 3.02 million tonnes. The DAE proposed 2.622 million tonnes, while the approved allocation eventually stood at 2.620 million tonnes, meaning the allocation was 402,000 tonnes lower than field-level demand.
For TSP, field-level demand stood at 963,000 tonnes. Although the DAE proposed 901,500 tonnes, the approved allocation was 750,000 tonnes. The gap between field-level demand and the approved allocation consequently stood at 213,000 tonnes.
Field-level demand for DAP was roughly 1.69 million tonnes. The DAE proposed around 1.35 million tonnes, but the approved allocation was nearly 1.48 million tonnes, meaning the allocation was 129,300 tonnes higher than the DAE’s proposal. But the approved allocation was still 207,000 tonnes lower than field-level demand.
Field-level demand for MOP stood at around 1.2 million tonnes. The DAE proposed 970,000 tonnes, while 950,000 tonnes were approved. This left a gap of 252,000 tonnes between field-level demand and the approved allocation.
Although the gap between field-level demand and the approved allocation is slightly more than 1 million tonnes in the current fiscal year, the difference was much wider in the previous four fiscal years. In particular, field-level fertiliser demand in the 2025–26 fiscal year was estimated at around 13.78 million tonnes. By contrast, the DAE proposed nearly 5.88 million tonnes, while the government eventually approved approximately 5.78 million tonnes, meaning the approved allocation was around 7.99 million tonnes lower than field-level demand. Similarly, the gap between field-level demand and the DAE’s proposal was around 7.89 million tonnes.
A similar picture was seen in the 2024–25 fiscal year. Field-level fertiliser demand that year was estimated at around 13.33 million tonnes. The DAE proposed 8.84 million tonnes, while the government approved an allocation of 5.9 million tonnes. The approved allocation consequently was around 7.43 million tonnes lower than field-level demand. The gap between field-level demand and the approved allocation also stood at around 6.62 million tonnes in the 2023–24 fiscal year, compared with around 2.71 million tonnes in the preceding fiscal year.
Industry stakeholders say the figures have brought into focus the question of how accurately actual field-level demand is being reflected in the fertiliser supply management system. There is also a need to review how realistically demand is being assessed based on indicators such as farmers’ requirements, the amount of cultivated land, crop types, seasonal needs and variations in usage across regions.
Bangladesh Fertilizer Association President Md Mosharraf Hossain claimed that fertiliser dealers are not receiving allocations in line with farmers’ demand. “They’re being held responsible for fertiliser shortages. Sectors outside conventional agriculture, including fisheries and livestock, tobacco, tea gardens and other areas, aren’t being considered in demand estimates. Despite the government allocating fertiliser for conventional agriculture, its use in these sectors is increasing day by day.”
Annual fertiliser allocations or demand are finalised through four main stages, according to sources at the Ministry of Agriculture and the DAE. First, the Upazila Fertiliser and Seed Monitoring Committee assesses crops, seasons, weather risks and other relevant factors before sending the demand to the district committee. The district committee compiles data from all upazilas and sends it to the DAE. The DAE then analyses and verifies the data before proposing a demand. The national coordination and advisory committee on fertiliser subsequently reviews the proposal and approves allocations against the assessed demand.
The committee is a high-level government committee chaired by the agriculture minister. Its members also include the industries minister; the chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on the Ministry of Agriculture; secretaries of the ministries of agriculture, finance, industries, and fisheries and livestock; the chairmen of the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation and Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation; the director general of the Department of Agricultural Extension; an executive director of Bangladesh Bank responsible for foreign exchange policy; and the chairman of the Bangladesh Fertilizer Association. Three members of parliament are also on the committee.
But DAE Director General Md Abdur Rahim said field-level figures should not be considered the actual demand for fertiliser. Speaking to Bonik Barta, he said, “We conduct a thorough analysis of the demand that comes to the DAE headquarters from the block level. We analyse the trend in fertiliser use over the past few years. After analysis by experts, we propose the final demand. This is the final demand of the Department of Agricultural Extension. Those who submit the figures directly from the field level may not analyse them in the same way. Or there are three doses of fertiliser. One is the ‘low dose’, another is the ‘medium dose ’, and the other is the ‘high dose’. We always consider the medium dose. At the block level, they may prepare the demand based on the high dose. That is basically why the difference arises.”
Agricultural economists say fertiliser, seeds and pesticides are crucial inputs for agricultural production. So accurate data are essential for increasing agricultural output and formulating plans for the sector in the future.
Agricultural economist Dr Jahangir Alam told Bonik Barta, “The demand submitted from the field level is overestimated. Then the DAE cuts it down and submits another figure, which is also an underestimate. After that, it’s further reduced when it reaches the ministry. Essentially, fertiliser demand depends on cropping intensity. If cropping intensity increases, fertiliser demand will also rise. So when allocating fertiliser, the amount used in the most recent year should be taken into account, and the allocation for the following year should be kept 5 to 10 percent higher. If there’s any unused fertiliser, it can always be used later.”
The agricultural economist also said a lack of accurate data could affect the agriculture sector. “It’s important to have accurate data on actual demand and how much farmers actually use. That makes planning easier. The current fertiliser shortage is also partly attributable to the lack of an accurate assessment of demand,” he said.
A recent report by the Special Branch (SB) of Bangladesh Police also highlighted the gap between field-level fertiliser demand and government allocations. In a report sent to the home ministry on September 8, the agency said actual fertiliser demand across the country had not been properly assessed at the field level. Consequently, it wasn’t possible to allocate fertiliser to all areas of the country based on actual demand. The report also noted that this was contributing to shortages in many districts.
Agriculture Minister Mohammed Aminur Rashid told Bonik Barta, “A realistic assessment of fertiliser demand is being conducted. Questions have been raised about whether demand from sectors such as fisheries is being properly reflected. We’ll assess this as well. Fertiliser will be allocated based on an accurate assessment of demand.”