A World Bank review based on statistics from the International Labor Organization (ILO) revealed that from 2013 to 2022, Bangladesh's working-age population grew at an average rate of 1.5 percent. However, during the same period, employment growth was only 0.2 percent.

Experts say that although a large number of young people enter the workforce every year, there hasn't been enough job creation to absorb them. Even the most productive sectors and frontier firms have not played an effective role in creating jobs. On the contrary, many people have lost their jobs due to various economic and political crises. As a result, the growth rate of unemployment has surpassed the growth rates of both the working-age population and new job creation.

According to the World Bank, Bangladesh's average GDP growth rate (6.4 percent) is expected to be higher than the global average from 2018 to 2024. The poverty rate, over 30 percent in the 1990s, has been reduced to 5 percent by 2022. Using these statistics, Bangladesh is expected to move from a low-income to a developing country by 2026. However, this progress is not reflected in the country's new job creation data.

A review report titled Frontier Firms and Job Creation in Bangladesh, published by the Bretton Woods Institution last month, highlights this issue. According to the report, from 2013 to 2022, the working-age population increased at an average rate of 1.5 percent, while the growth rate of new employment was only 0.2 percent.

Dr. Mustafa K. Mujeri, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (INM), believes that the lack of decent employment is increasingly worsening the unemployment crisis in the country. He told Bonik Barta, "If the population growth trend continues, the working-age population will keep increasing. The growth of employment will depend on various characteristics of the economy and the path of economic development or growth. Analyzing both statistics, it will be clear that a portion of the working-age population has been unable to engage in employment. The problem is that decent employment sectors have not developed, and there are few. Opportunities for employment in formal or institutional sectors are limited. Most new jobs are in the informal sector, which offers very low wages. Overall, the shortage of decent employment is a major issue. This is a structural problem in the economy. As a result, the informal sector remains large, while institutional employment sectors cannot grow. This issue is not just ours; most low-income or developing countries face similar structural problems, leading to the dominance of the informal sector. This is why decent employment is absent in countries like Bangladesh."

In recent years, while the number of young people in the working-age population has remained relatively stable, their employment opportunities have shrunk. Between 2013 and 2022, employment opportunities for those aged 15 to 24 decreased by 3.4 percent. As a result, the youth unemployment rate in the country has increased from 10 percent to 16 percent.

AKM Fahim Masroor, CEO of bdjobs, sees a shift in social preferences for career choices as a major factor behind the increase in youth unemployment. He told Bonik Barta, "Normally, about 2.4 to 2.5 million new workers enter the job market every year. Around one-third of graduates are from various universities, especially colleges under the National University. Unemployment is very high among National University graduates. After graduation, they are reluctant to work in agriculture or factories, which are low-income jobs. Previously, only 3.5 percent of the total population were graduates; now it is 10 percent. Graduates are no longer interested in other jobs. In our agriculture and industrial sectors, the demand for non-graduates is higher than for graduates. This change in social priorities regarding career choices is a major reason for the increase in youth and overall unemployment."

Immediately after independence, the country's economy was primarily agrarian. At that time, agriculture had a large contribution to GDP, and the labor force was also mostly dependent on agriculture. However, in the last fifty years, there have been major changes in the country's economic structure. The country has shifted from being agrarian to focusing on industry. The industrial sector's contribution to GDP has now surpassed that of agriculture. However, this shift is not reflected in the labor market.

Ardashir Kabir, President of the Bangladesh Employers' Federation (BEF), attributes this issue to various business challenges and the failure to give proper importance to the agricultural sector. He told Bonik Barta, "We need to prioritize reforms in the education system in Bangladesh. We also need to focus on skill development. We must align with the global market. Sending day laborers and construction workers abroad is not benefiting Bangladesh. We need to send trained labor forces, like trained nurses, abroad. In the current situation, who will ensure job creation? The interest rate is now above 13 percent. You're labeled as a defaulter if you don't pay in three months. No third-world country grows this way. Businesspeople need the freedom to do business, but that doesn't mean allowing corruption. Corruption has been allowed for too long. Workers must also be responsible when forming unions. We have failed to give the agricultural sector its due importance, even though we have the most fertile land in the world. Many countries are exporting agricultural products, but we are not. The government needs to look into this deeply."

Frontier firms now dominate the industrial sector's total income and contribution. However, a World Bank review has found that these frontier firms also fail to create quality employment. The review shows that Bangladesh's frontier firms are more innovation-driven than smaller enterprises. In this regard, they have even outpaced their competitors. From 2019 to 2022, these frontier firms achieved higher growth than others. Currently, nearly three-quarters of the total sales of goods and services in the country are controlled by frontier firms. However, their contribution to total institutional employment is only 15 percent.

There is a significant gap in institutional income and new job creation in the country's main export sector, ready-made garments (RMG). Nearly half of the country's total income from business establishments is controlled by frontier firms in the RMG sector. However, their contribution to institutional employment in the private sector is only one in twelve.

Regarding this issue, Bri Gen (retd) Dr. M. Sakhawat Hossain, adviser to the Ministry of Labor and Employment, told Bonik Barta, "We have one of the largest young populations, which forms our core workforce. For various reasons, we cannot provide them with sufficient employment opportunities. One reason is that our real entrepreneurs have not been able to grow. Those who have deceived banks and taken loans have grown more. We have not supported industrialization properly. We have politicized industrial growth. We did not allow free growth. We have created a contraction and mafia networks. In such a situation, how can free growth occur? Moreover, the government does not create employment. The civil sector creates employment. The government is not an employer. It does what is required for government institutions. In today's world, nothing is under the government's control. For example, we can talk about our tourism sector. Leaving this sector to the private sector could create thousands of jobs for the youth. Many countries are doing this, but we have not been able to develop the sector. We have not taken the necessary initiatives to do so."

He also pointed to the concentration of the industrial sector as one of the main reasons for the current situation. He said, "We are focused only on the textile sector. Some entrepreneurs in this sector have taken loans from banks and moved abroad. Meanwhile, the industry has stagnated. In my eight months of experience, I saw that we have monopolized everything. As a result, there is uneven growth in all sectors related to youth employment. This has led to an inclination to go abroad. Even though they face more difficulties abroad than in Bangladesh. We are working on these issues. In the current government, neither I nor anyone else has any 'conflict of interest' to deny workers their minimum entitlements."