The government is turning to floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) as both a short-term fix and a longer-term response to the country’s gas crisis, giving approval in principle to a Chinese proposal for a third LNG terminal at Moheshkhali. Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood has also recently outlined plans for three more facilities at Payra, Mongla and Hiron Point.

Energy experts, however, say the priority should be to raise domestic output through exploration, drilling, 3D seismic surveys and investment in rigs, rather than keep adding import terminals.

The two existing facilities already face operational problems, experts note, while new terminals would require heavy capital spending, add to pressure on the economy and expose the country to further supply-chain risks.

Bangladesh’s growing reliance on imported gas under the now-ousted government has also strained state finances. Experts warn that continuing down the same path would leave the energy sector structurally vulnerable.

“Given our current gas crisis, simply importing LNG or building terminals won’t suffice,” M Tamim, an energy expert and professor at Independent University, Bangladesh, told Bonik Barta. “We must scale up exploration on land and at sea using modern technology, backed by more data analysis (2D and 3D).”

Bangladesh began importing LNG in 2018. Over the eight fiscal years from 2018–19 to 2025–26, cumulative imports exceeded BDT 2.76 trillion, while the government paid more than BDT 480 billion in import subsidies. The two existing terminals can supply a combined 1.1 billion cubic feet of gas a day. Their exact charter fees are confidential, but a reliable source said each unit costs about $300,000 a day to rent.

The cost of imports has risen sharply since the first LNG cargoes arrived. Bangladesh spent about BDT 120 billion on LNG in FY 2018–19, the first year of imports. By FY 2025–26, the annual bill had risen to BDT 600 billion and state subsidies increased more than sixfold.

A third terminal would more than double the import bill, according to stakeholders. The previous Awami League government repeatedly raised domestic gas prices to ease the burden but still failed to cover the cost, forcing it to rely on foreign borrowing and the Gas Development Fund (GDF).

The proposed third terminal has won in-principle approval, but officials estimate it will take more than three years to start operations. Experts say that window should instead be used to raise domestic output by drilling more wells, buying rigs and expanding 3D seismic coverage, rather than approving the other proposed terminals.

Bangladesh currently faces a gas shortfall of about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day and the gap is expected to widen in the coming years. Petrobangla’s 50-well drilling programme to boost supply has produced less gas than expected.

Insiders attribute some of the failures to poor 2D seismic data. Energy Division and Petrobangla officials told Bonik Barta that several wells drilled on the basis of 2D surveys had come up dry, while others produced far less gas than projected. They said 3D surveys were needed to give a clearer picture of underground formations and confirm reserves.

Three senior Energy Division and Petrobangla officials, speaking anonymously, said the previous government’s 50-well drilling programme would fall short of its production target. Many wells had proved dry, they said. Several that initially showed strong flows were already declining. The officials largely blamed outdated 2D data. Using modern drilling technology without better seismic information, they argued, risks wasting both time and money. With the sector already under pressure, Bangladesh cannot afford to drill wells based on speculative estimates, they warned.

Local and foreign companies have so far completed 54,643 line-kilometres of 2D seismic surveys and 7,137 square kilometres of 3D surveys across the country. Yet wells drilled in recent years on the basis of 2D data have repeatedly failed to meet reserve projections, with many producing no gas at all.

Bapex and Petrobangla sources said seven or eight foreign companies conducted some of the country’s early 2D and 3D surveys after the first oil and gas discoveries. State-owned Bapex began its own 2D mapping in 2010 across fields operated by Bangladesh Gas Fields Company Ltd and Sylhet Gas Fields Ltd.

2D seismic surveys use surface vibration devices to send acoustic waves underground and produce two-dimensional images of geological structures, giving a broad picture of subsurface formations. 3D surveys produce a more precise model and help establish the size and location of reserves.

Petrobangla could not immediately provide the total cost of seismic surveys since 2010. Overall government spending on gas exploration, however, has reached only about BDT 80 billion over the past two decades. Three state-owned producers spent BDT 68.32 billion on well drilling between 2000 and 2023. Petrobangla sources said at least another BDT 10 billion was later spent on additional drilling and related work.

Bapex completed 1,866 line-kilometres of 2D surveys and 380 square kilometres of 3D seismic surveys in FY 2024–25.

“Expanding 3D surveys will give us clearer data on well reserves and greater certainty about gas deposits. Petrobangla is currently running 3D projects in multiple areas,” Petrobangla Director (PSC) Md Shoaib told Bonik Barta.

Domestic gas production continues to decline, and Bapex and Petrobangla officials say the fall has recently accelerated. Reversing that trend will require more exploration and drilling in untapped areas, particularly the hills and riverine islands. That, sector insiders say, will require more rigs.

Former Bapex Managing Director Mortuza Ahmad Faruque said deep drilling was essential to lift domestic production.

“Petrobangla has begun the work, but it must scale up operations. Exploration must also launch in riverine islands, hilly regions and areas where legacy data indicates presence of gas. Petrobangla holds vast 2D survey data; confirming commercial reserves requires both 3D mapping and exploratory drilling,” he told Bonik Barta.

Maqbul-E-Elahi Chowdhury, an energy specialist and former member of the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, said combining 3D surveys with existing 2D data would improve reserve estimates.

He told Bonik Barta: “The more data and evidence available, the clearer our picture of reserves becomes. Alongside 2D and 3D surveys, data acquisition, processing and interpretation are also critical. Confidence in gas reserves depends on who carries out that work and which methods they use. But drilling remains the most important step. Bangladesh has drilled many major gas wells using 2D surveys. If a well is drilled now and no gas is found, it suggests gaps in the underlying data. Three-dimensional surveys could provide a clearer picture.”

Critics say the government lacks the expertise, equipment and modern technology needed for large-scale exploration. A shortage of drilling rigs is another constraint.

Petrobangla says five rigs are now in operation and has approved the procurement of two more.

A nationwide gas shortage persisted for more than two weeks after a recent fire at an LNG terminal and adverse weather preventing vessels from docking at another. Industry, power plants and households faced acute shortages, although the situation is now beginning to ease.

The government is already pressing ahead with new LNG terminals to address the shortage. The energy minister has said three terminals are planned at Payra in Patuakhali, Mongla in Bagerhat and Hiron Point in Khulna. At a recent Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) seminar, he said the government plans to build the terminals by 2029.

Bonik Barta sought the views of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood but was unable to obtain a comment.