There is a clear link between power consumption and GDP growth. When a country's economy grows—especially in the industrial and agricultural sectors—electricity use increases too. More factories, businesses, and services mean more demand for power. But in Bangladesh, this pattern doesn't always hold.

For example, in 2018, the country's GDP grew by 7.3 percent, yet electricity consumption dropped by negative 0.44 percent. On the other hand, there are examples of GDP growth declining despite increased electricity consumption. In 2024, electricity use increased by 8.81 percent, but GDP growth fell to just 4.2 percent. These unusual trends make many people question the reliability of the country's economic data.

After the Awami League (AL) government came to power, it launched the Power System Master Plan 2010 to boost the power sector and support rapid economic growth. The plan estimated that electricity demand would grow by 10 percent every year. Based on this projection, over 90 power plants were approved between 2010 and mid-2024.

Many of these projects were awarded to companies and individuals close to the government under special laws. But the expected rise in demand never really happened. As a result, the government had to pay capacity charges to power plants that sat idle for much of the year—meaning money was spent on electricity that was never used. Poor planning led to costly projects with little return.

According to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), when the Awami League took office in the 2009–10 fiscal year, the country's total power generation capacity was 5,823 megawatts. By March 2024, it had increased to 27,645 megawatts. In addition, around 3,000 megawatts of electricity are produced by private or captive power plants.

Bangladesh's electricity production capacity has grown nearly 4.75 times in the last 15 years. However, the highest actual power usage recorded so far is only 16,477 megawatts—on April 30, 2023. That means a large part of the country's power capacity remains unused.

Dr. Ijaz Hossain, energy expert, and former BUET professor, shared his thoughts with Bonik Barta, saying, "Electricity demand in Bangladesh's industrial sector hasn't grown in line with expectations. Usually, when GDP goes up, energy demand should rise at a similar rate. But we're not seeing that now. That said, productivity and energy efficiency have improved. While large industries may not have seen a big jump in power use, smaller industries have."

Bangladesh still lags far behind globally and regionally regarding electricity use per person. The country ranks 122nd in the world. Even in Asia, Bangladesh is behind Sri Lanka and Pakistan in per capita electricity consumption.

Enerdata, an independent research group based in France, analyzes global electricity and climate trends. According to their data, from 2016 to 2022, electricity use in Bangladesh grew by just 3 percent per year—only half the rate of GDP growth during that same period. In comparison, from 2010 to 2016, electricity use had grown at nearly double that rate. Overall, from 2016 to 2024, electricity consumption in Bangladesh increased by an average of just 4 percent per year.

Despite this slow growth in electricity use, Bangladesh's economy showed impressive numbers over the last 15 years under the ousted Awami League government. GDP growth rarely dipped below 6 percent and generally stayed well above that.

According to preliminary figures from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country's GDP size at the end of the 2023–24 fiscal year was 459 billion dollars. However, after adjusting export data, the final GDP figure was revised slightly down to 450 billion dollars.

According to many economists and experts, Bangladesh's actual GDP might be between 300 and 350 billion dollars. The previous government is believed to have inflated the GDP numbers by at least 100 billion dollars to make the country's development and graduation from LDC (Least Developed Country) status look more impressive than it actually is.

Experts suggest that one of the main reasons for this inflation was to make it easier for the government to borrow more money from foreign lenders. The debt-to-GDP ratio appears smaller and less alarming by showing a bigger GDP.

Dr. Sajjad Zohir, executive director of the Economic Research Group (ERG), told Bonik Barta, "If GDP is growing faster than electricity consumption, it gives the impression that even a small increase in power use is leading to massive economic growth. That's one way to look at it. But the other explanation is GDP overestimation. Bangladesh calculates GDP using the expenditure method, including all the money the government spends, even when borrowed. Over time, however, the government's actual usage of that spending has decreased; meaning the impact of the spending is smaller. Still, it's counted in GDP, which leads to an inflated growth figure."

A "Macroeconomic Outlook 2025" report by City Bank Capital Resources supports this idea. According to their findings, Bangladesh's GDP for the 2023–24 fiscal year is likely closer to 300 billion dollars.

The report compared electricity usage and economic output across countries in the region. Citing data from the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), it noted that Bangladesh used only 96 million megawatt-hours of electricity last year—far less than expected for a country claiming such high GDP numbers.

The report raised the critical question of how Bangladesh can claim 50–60 percent more economic output per unit of electricity than countries like India, Pakistan, or China.

Compared to the world's top economies, neighboring countries, and even countries with similar economies, Bangladesh has a much higher GDP value added per unit of electricity consumption. According to World Bank data from 2022, every unit of electricity used in Bangladesh added 26.6 dollars to the GDP. To put that in perspective, the numbers for other countries during the same period were much lower: China had 7.8 dollars, Germany was at 19.4 dollars, India at 12 dollars, Japan at 14.3 dollars, Pakistan at 11.7 dollars, the United Kingdom at 23.4 dollars, the United States at 11.2 dollars, and Vietnam at 12.6 dollars.

Dr. Mustafa K Mujeri, former director general of BIDS and current executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (INM), told Bonik Barta, "Power consumption data seems more reliable because there's less room to exaggerate it. However, GDP numbers have been questioned, as growth may have been overstated. That's likely why we're seeing this mismatch between electricity use and GDP growth in Bangladesh. There's a clear link between electricity use and economic growth—but Bangladesh appears to be an exception."

Due to the lack of assurance of uninterrupted and appropriate load power supply from the government, industrial entrepreneurs depend on captive power plants for electricity. They say that the country's gridline electricity is not uninterrupted. That is why industrial owners take gas from the government, produce electricity themselves, and use it in industry. For the past decade, the capacity of captive power plants in the industrial sector has remained stable at 3,000 megawatts. During this time, although the government increased the generation capacity in the power sector, industrial owners did not use grid electricity due to the lack of uninterrupted power supply.

When asked about electricity use in the industrial sector, Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) president, told Bonik Barta, "Electricity use in the industrial sector hasn't really increased. Instead, the focus has been on the gas crisis, which has increased fuel shortages in the past. As a result, the demand for electricity in the industrial sector hasn't grown either. It's important to know accurate data on the real growth of the GDP and the energy sector. Businessmen needed this information. The government should publish the correct reports based on this data."

Energy experts say that the growth in the electricity sector has mainly been seen in the residential sector. This means most of the increased electricity demand has come from homes, especially as urbanization has expanded cities nationwide. The demand for electricity in the industrial sector hasn't grown. That's why, after 2017, electricity use on the grid hasn't increased significantly, according to the experts.

Professor M. Tamim, an energy expert from BUET, told Bonik Barta, "Normally, power use in a country grows at the same rate as GDP. But that hasn't happened in Bangladesh. Here, economic growth is primarily based on infrastructure investment. So, there isn't much relationship between economic growth and electricity growth. The main reason is that the industrial sector hasn't grown much over the past decade. Yet, growth in the industrial sector is a big factor for overall economic growth."

He believes, "In our country, the electricity use and GDP growth projections should be considered separately. In most countries, there is a connection between electricity use and economic growth. This is called GDP elasticity, which predicts electricity use based on economic growth. In Bangladesh, projections have been made for 40,000 MW or 60,000 MW of electricity production capacity. These projections are based on GDP factors, where the economy is shown to grow by 8-9 percent."