Climate change could add to the economic pressures bearing down on Bangladesh, Environment Minister Abdul Awal Mintoo said on Thursday, warning that heavy rain, drought and floods could disrupt farm output and transport links while raising transport costs.
Speaking as chief guest at the Green Dialogue on climate change and economic realignment, organised by Bonik Barta at the Pan Pacific Sonargaon in Dhaka, Mintoo added that industrial shutdowns could in turn hit exports and employment.
The effects of climate change are not a distant prospect but already visible, he said. Extreme heat is eroding productivity among factory workers, while rising salinity in farmland is adding pressure on arable land and drinking water.
Mintoo said the economy is navigating multiple challenges including slower growth, higher inflation, constraints on investment and pressure on the energy sector. Growth forecasts for the next five years from the Asian Development Bank and other organisations are also lower than earlier projections, he noted.
Citing the World Bank’s updated forecast, he said the lender projects growth of 3.4 percent for the 2025–26 fiscal year. That is a projection rather than a final figure, he noted, but the economy needs greater resilience to emerge from its current difficulties.
The minister stressed the need to strengthen adaptation and preventive measures, saying damage from climate change can be substantially reduced with proper preparation. Flood damage to production, disrupted transport links and industrial shutdowns all require early action, he said.
On agriculture, Mintoo said the sector is not only about food production but is tied to rural employment, poverty reduction, market stability and social protection. Bangladesh has good irrigation but farming remains heavily dependent on the weather, leaving it exposed to both excessive rain and drought.
About 46 percent of Bangladeshis still depend on agriculture, though the sector contributes 11 to 12 percent of GDP, he said. Raising productivity requires greater use of inputs and mechanisation, though mechanisation may reduce demand for labour in the sector.
On employment, the minister said 2 million to 2.2 million young people enter the job market every year, joined by others leaving agriculture and growing numbers of women seeking work. He stressed that at least 2 million to 2.2 million employment opportunities must be created annually, requiring large-scale investment and broad-based measures.
Turning to future climate risks, Mintoo cited El Niño conditions linked to Pacific Ocean temperature shifts. This year’s El Niño could be the most severe in two decades, he said. Its effects could include more storms, drought and excessive rain over the next one to two years. Adaptation measures must be strengthened to limit potential damage and keep daily life functioning, he added.