Food grain production in Bangladesh is not keeping pace with population growth. Sector insiders say agriculture is slowly hitting a standstill—mainly due to the shrinking amount of farmland, the lack of innovation and expansion of high-yield crop varieties, rising input costs, and the fact that farmers are not earning enough. If this trend continues, the country’s entire food system could face a serious blow.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, around 11.79 million hectares of land were used to grow rice in the 2014–15 fiscal year. That figure dropped to 11.5 million hectares in 2020–21 and fell even further to 11.4 million hectares in 2024–25. That means farmland used for rice cultivation has shrunk by nearly 2 percent over five years. The decline has been gradual but consistent. In the same period, yield per hectare has increased by only 4 percent, while total rice production has grown by just 2 percent.
Experts warn that many of Bangladesh’s once-fertile lands—where two or even three crops were harvested annually—are now being used for non-agricultural purposes. That is despite the fact that existing laws clearly forbid such use. However, the law is rarely enforced. On top of that, experts say that leaving farmers at the mercy of market prices will not work. The government needs to step in and ensure price support, because farmers cannot compete with powerful market syndicates. As a result, they lose interest in growing the same crop the following year.
Agricultural economist Dr. Jahangir Alam has studied the changing use of farmland and its per capita availability. His analysis of agricultural census data shows that between 2008 and 2019, the country lost farmland at an average annual rate of 0.21 percent. From 1996 to 2008, the rate was even higher—0.74 percent a year. And between 1984 and 1996, the decline averaged 0.97 percent annually. In short, over a span of 35 years, Bangladesh has lost farmland at an average rate of 0.35 percent per year.
Speaking to Bonik Barta, Dr. Jahangir Alam said, “We have laws that agricultural land cannot be used for anything else. But in reality, they’re not being enforced. That must change. We have to make sure our two- and three-crop lands are preserved for farming. We’re losing a lot of land to river erosion, brick kilns, and road construction. That’s why the government should consider growing vegetables on roadside plots and in the open spaces of district and upazila government offices.”
Dinajpur, often called the country’s “food basket,” is home to vast stretches of fertile land, most of which yield two to three crops a year. Some lands even produce four crops annually. But things are changing fast. In recent years, housing projects have been steadily eating into these farmlands. Brick kilns and factories are springing up everywhere. As a result, both land area and crop yields are falling—and farmers are feeling the pressure.
According to data from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Dinajpur alone lost 3,232 hectares of arable land in the past six years.
And it is not just Dinajpur—such is the case across Bangladesh. As the population grows, new housing developments and business hubs are being built. On top of that, the government is constructing roads and launching various infrastructure projects, often acquiring farmland in the process. Officially however, the government discourages setting up projects on land that yields three crops a year.
Even government officials admit that the law meant to protect farmland is not being enforced properly. Speaking to Bonik Barta, Md Abu Zubair Hossain Bablu, Additional Secretary (Research Division) of the Ministry of Agriculture, said, “We do have laws in place to protect farmland. Anyone who wants to change the classification of agricultural land must get approval from the Deputy Commissioner. But the law isn’t being properly enforced. People are building homes and factories on farmland whenever they want. We’re now working with the Ministry of Land to coordinate efforts and come up with a plan to stop this.”
Urban planners believe the lack of clear land classification is one of the key reasons behind this ongoing loss of farmland. They say a proper land-use plan would help monitor and manage this decline. Md Ashraful Islam, Chief Urban Planner at Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (RAJUK), told Bonik Barta, “Only 10 percent of the country’s land is currently under any kind of planning by development authorities or municipalities. The remaining 90 percent is unplanned. That’s why housing and industrial structures are being built randomly. We’ve repeatedly called for a National Physical Plan for the entire country. Our population is growing. Farmland is disappearing and it’ll continue to shrink. We need to know how much land we’re losing, and where. We must never allow housing or factories on triple-crop land. If needed, we should only convert single-crop land.”
Climate change is also playing a role in the decline. Dr. Fahmida Parvin, Professor of Environmental Science at Jahangirnagar University, explained to Bonik Barta, “The southern region is now struggling with increasing salinity in its farmland. This is hurting crop production. If things continue like this, Bangladesh’s food security will be at serious risk.”
It is not just farmlands shrinking across the country, farmers’ profits are too. Despite good harvests, the earnings are not adding up. A recent study by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) found that over the past seven years, the cost of agricultural production has increased by around 3.5 percent. During the same period, crop prices have gone up by only about 1.31 percent. In simple terms, farmers are spending more to grow food but earning less from it. Another BIDS study revealed that between 2011 and 2020, soil fertility dropped by 0.44 percent due to soil degradation and poor farming practices.
Low crop prices are discouraging farmers to plant the same crops again. Take potatoes, for example. Last season, farmers got a decent price, so this year they planted potatoes on 12 percent more land than planned. But when the harvest came in strong, prices collapsed early in the season. Although it cost around BDT 15 per kilogram to grow the crop, many farmers had to sell their potatoes straight from the field at just BDT 13 or 14 per kilogram—barely covering production costs.
The same thing happened with seasonal vegetables such as cauliflower. This winter, farmers saw a good cauliflower harvest, but prices did not meet expectations. In many places, each cauliflower sold for just BDT 2 to 3, while the cost of production was over BDT 10.
In Airmara village of Saturia upazila, Manikganj, farmer Bashir Ahmed said each seedling cost BDT 2.5 to 3. On top of that, he had to spend on land preparation, pesticides, fertilizers, nutrients, and day labor. After all that, he ended up selling each cauliflower at a loss. “Many of us just left the crops in the field,” he said. “Some even fed them to cows.”
When farmers do not get fair prices one year, they reduce cultivation of that crop the next. That often leads to a supply crunch, driving prices back up—hurting consumers. But the cycle continues, as there is little to no timely intervention from the government.
Yet there are laws in place. According to the Agriculture Marketing Act 2018 and the National Agriculture Marketing Policy, the government is supposed to ensure fair prices for farmers and stabilize market prices. But in reality, the Department of Agricultural Marketing is rarely seen standing by either farmers or consumers when it matters.
Market analysts say the Department of Agricultural Marketing’s (DAM) first job is to protect farmers, and then ensure fair prices for buyers. But they usually show up only after prices rise and public outcry begins. When prices crash, the agency tasked with setting fair prices is nowhere to be found.
Dr. Jahangir Alam has suggested providing direct price support or cash incentives to farmers. Speaking to Bonik Barta, he said, “There’s always a lot of activity when prices go up, but nothing is done when they fall. The government could set a minimum price or offer cash support to help farmers cope.”
While Bangladesh’s population continues to grow steadily, rice production growth is slowing down—and that gap is starting to raise concern. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country’s population growth rate (RNI) in 2023 stood at 1.33 percent, slightly lower than 1.4 percent the year before. Based on the latest inter-census estimates, the average growth rate is about 1.12 percent. But rice production is not keeping up. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that in the past three fiscal years, rice production growth has stayed below 1 percent.
In fiscal year 2020–21, Bangladesh produced 38.6 million tons of rice—the same as the previous year. In 2021–22, production rose slightly to 38.9 million tons, reflecting just 0.78 percent growth. The following year, 2022–23, output went up by only 0.26 percent to reach 39 million tons. In each of those years, the actual production fell short of the government’s target.
Experts say this sluggish growth is largely due to rising production costs and poor market prices for paddy. As a result, many farmers are turning to other crops, and some are even stepping away from agriculture altogether.
When Bonik Barta asked Agriculture Secretary Dr. Md Emdad Ullah Mian about the issue, he admitted that direct cash support might not be a realistic solution, but said the government is taking steps to protect farmers’ interests. “The key is to maintain a balance between demand and supply,” he said. “We’re setting up 100 mini cold storages across the country to help farmers store their produce. Small storage units are also being built for onions—these can be set up at home for just BDT 35,000 to 40,000, and we’re offering support for that. Farmers will be able to store onions for six to seven months.”
He added, “This year’s potato yield was very high, so we’re working with exporters to boost potato exports. We’re also planning to build cold storage facilities specifically for vegetables at the farmer level.”