Prices for many essential food and fuel products have been rising over the last two months. Yet data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) show that overall inflation decreased during the period. Meanwhile, the agency has released a provisional estimate of over 4 percent GDP growth for the 2025-26 fiscal year amid weaknesses in various economic indicators, investment stagnation, pressure on revenue collection and employment crises. This discrepancy between ground reality and government statistics has raised fresh questions about the quality of BBS data.

BBS data show overall inflation stood at 8.32 percent in July 2026, with food inflation at 7.16 percent, while in June, overall inflation was 9.16 percent and food inflation was 8.60 percent, and overall and food inflation were 9.42 percent and 9.06 percent, respectively in May. This means that overall and food inflation consistently declined from May to July. But in July 2025, these two rates were 8.55 percent and 7.56 percent, respectively, meaning overall and food inflation in July of the current year decreased slightly compared to July of last year.

A Bangladesh Bank evaluation reveals that inflation has recently increased in the country due to rising prices in the fuel and vegetable markets. Average inflation in the country during the final quarter of the FY 2025-26 (April-June 2026) rose to 9.21 percent compared to the previous quarter, according to central bank data. Increases in the prices of fuel oil, gas and vegetables primarily drove inflation up during this period. According to the report, fuel inflation during the quarter surged from 14.9 to 17 percent. The most significant changes occurred in the prices of gas and fuel oil, with fuel oil and lubricant inflation climbing from 1.7 to 13.8 percent, and gas inflation jumping from 11.3 to 24 percent. In June, electricity prices in the country also increased by 19.85 percent at the wholesale level and 16.68 percent at the consumer level.

Price adjustment is the primary driver of the increase in fuel inflation, according to Bangladesh Bank. Out of 382 items in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, the prices of 261 items increased compared to the previous month, according to an analysis of the diffusion index of inflation from the central bank’s report. The prices of only 22 items decreased, while 99 items remained unchanged. In other words, price hikes are no longer limited to a few select commodities; rather, they have spread across a wide range.

In July, within the first seven months of this year, the prices of 26 products reached their highest levels, according to an analysis of 62 products from the monthly national average retail market prices published by the Department of Agricultural Marketing. Compared to June, the prices of 13 products increased, and the prices of eight products were also higher in July compared to both May and June. The prices of six products conversely decreased compared to June, while the prices of nine products remained unchanged.

In July, the prices of soybean and palm oil, loose flour (maida), local onions, green chillies, powdered milk and various types of fish — such as rui, catla, mrigal, pangas, hilsa, shing, silver carp and tilapia — were at their highest levels for the year. Among vegetables, the prices of local and Holland potatoes, eggplants, sweet pumpkins, cucumbers and tomatoes were also at their peak in July. The price of imported sugar likewise climbed to its highest point of the year.

The steepest price increase in July was observed in green chillies. The national average retail price, which stood at BDT 71 per kg in June, surged to BDT 142 in July. The price of local onions increased from BDT 36 in June to BDT 56 in July, representing a price hike of BDT 20 or 55.6 percent in a single month. During the same period, the price of soybean oil rose from BDT 181 in January to BDT 193 in July, and palm oil increased from BDT 157 to BDT 168. For both commodities, the July prices were the highest recorded this year.

A clear difference in price pressure in the edible oil market compared to July of last year is also evident. In July 2025, the price of soybean oil was BDT 171, which is BDT 22 or about 12.9 percent lower compared to July of the current year. The price of palm oil also increased from BDT 154 to BDT 168, marking an increase of about 9.1 percent.

Despite rising prices of several agricultural products, the rice market remained relatively stable. The price of medium Boro rice was BDT 60 in May, and remained at BDT 59 in both June and July. The price of fine Boro rice held steady at BDT 75 in June and July. But the price of medium Aman rice increased from BDT 58 in June to BDT 59 in July. The price of lentils (masur dal) meanwhile rose from BDT 102 in May and BDT 101 in June to BDT 105 in July.

A slight price increase was observed in the animal protein market during July. The price of broiler chicken went up from BDT 167 in June to BDT 175 per kg in July. The price of red farm eggs increased from BDT 42 in June to BDT 43 per hali (4 pieces) in July. In the fish market, the price of medium local rui rose from BDT 412 to BDT 416, small rui from BDT 336 to BDT 340 and large pangas from BDT 247 to BDT 250. The price of hilsa surged continuously from BDT 1,385 in May to reach BDT 1,560 in July.

Price hikes were even more widespread in the vegetable market. The price of local potatoes increased from BDT 34 in June to BDT 38 in July, Holland white potatoes rose from BDT 24 to BDT 26, and eggplants jumped from BDT 58 to BDT 76.

When asked, BBS Director General Md Shamimul Haque told Bonik Barta, “Inflation data is collected from all 64 districts of the country. Inflation is calculated by averaging urban and rural data using a specific methodology. Internationally accepted methods and UN-prescribed formulas are followed in measuring inflation.”

He further said, “In the case of inflation, primarily two types of comparisons are made. One is the year-on-year comparison of the current month with the same month from a year ago. The other is the month-on-month comparison of the current month with the previous month. Even if year-on-year inflation declines slightly, a different picture may emerge in monthly calculations.”

When questioned about the quality of GDP data, the BBS director general stated, ‘The matter is currently under review. A team of economists from BIDS is reviewing the GDP calculations and data quality. It is being analysed whether there are any shortcomings or gaps in the calculation methodology, and if so, where and how they are occurring. A clearer idea about this will be available once the review concludes.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised questions regarding the quality of various statistics in Bangladesh, including GDP growth. The organisation’s “Data Adequacy Assessment” report from January 2026 noted vulnerabilities regarding data concerning inflation, government financial statistics, import-export and monetary policy.

Regarding inflation statistics, the IMF stated that the scope of goods and services included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket is insufficient, which can hinder the proper assessment of inflationary pressure. Overall, while assigning a “B” rating to inflation statistics, the agency gave a "C" rating regarding their scope or coverage.

The BBS inflation basket currently contains 749 items. Among them are certain goods such as wardrobes, laptops, and chairs and tables that a consumer purchases very infrequently. The basket previously contained 420 items. According to analysts, due to changes in the number and weighting of items in the basket, even when the prices of daily essentials increase, their impact may be reflected comparatively less in overall inflation.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told Bonik Barta: “A decline in the inflation rate doesn’t mean that price levels have dropped. Due to high inflation over the past few years, the price level has already risen significantly, and prices are now climbing further on top of that high baseline. If the prices of daily essentials such as vegetables, eggs, fish, rice and lentils increase at a rate higher than general inflation, the actual inflationary pressure on common people can be much heavier than what is reflected in official government averages.”

Regarding GDP growth statistics, he stated: “The growth momentum has slowed down due to various reasons, including crises in investment and energy supply. High inflation has also eroded people’s purchasing power, which has also cast a negative impact on revenue collection.”

He believes that further improvements are necessary in the BBS’s reforms, survey quality and data collection processes. As he noted, this issue was also highlighted in the white paper. Implementing the proposed reforms is crucial to enhancing the regular operations and survey quality of the BBS, though no major structural changes are visible as yet.

Alongside inflation, questions have also been raised regarding GDP growth statistics. Despite weaknesses in various key indicators, such as high inflation, pressure on the foreign exchange market, banking sector vulnerabilities, shortfalls in revenue collection, sluggish private investment and an employment crisis, the BBS has released a provisional estimate of over 4 percent GDP growth for the 2025–26 fiscal year.

Economists have raised questions as to how GDP growth managed to exceed 4 percent amidst weaknesses across multiple vital indices, and how accurately this calculation reflects the real economic situation. The IMF has also questioned the qualitative standards of GDP data; the agency’s Data Adequacy Assessment assigned a “C” rating to national income or GDP-related statistics, with the report highlighting various limitations in GDP calculation methods and data.

GDP plays a fundamental role across various key economic indicators. Globally, crucial metrics — ranging from debt and exports to revenue collection — are compared against GDP. Over the past decade and a half, domestic and foreign economists and observers have consistently disagreed with the previous government’s claims regarding the country’s GDP growth. Economists believe that due to the failure to implement recommendations concerning the reform of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), a lack of confidence in the data provided by the agency still persists.

Dr Mustafa K Mujeri, former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank and executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), told Bonik Barta: “In the past, confusion was created regarding various government data, including inflation and GDP. This resulted in a crisis of public trust in official statistics, with specific allegations that data was used for political purposes in the past. It can’t be said that this trend has been completely eradicated. So even when data is accurate, a sense of distrust may linger among the people.”

He further stated, “Various government policies and decisions are formulated based on the data supplied by the BBS. So alongside improving the qualitative standards of all types of government data, including inflation, GDP and poverty, it must be ensured that this data isn’t influenced or manipulated for political or other purposes. Unless transparency, accountability, and neutrality are ensured in data collection and publication, the crisis of confidence in official statistics will continue."

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said there is no scope for information distortion under the current government. He made the remarks on Wednesday while responding to journalists’ questions at a press conference following the closing session of the national conference titled “Navigating Five Year Strategic Framework for Achieving SDGs: Policy, Partnership and Priorities” held at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Conference Center in Dhaka.

Addressing the BBS-provided misinformation in the past, the finance minister asserted, “Such practices have no place under the current administration. Ensuring accurate data is a top priority so that the government can formulate policies and make decisions based on precise information.”

Regarding the latest inflation figures, the minister noted that the data was reviewed and verified multiple times before publication. “We checked the data several times and held several meetings,” he said, adding that the newly released inflation statistics are entirely accurate.