Although experts have warned for years that Bangladesh faces the threat of a major earthquake, the country remains largely unprepared. On Friday morning, November 21, Bangladesh experienced its strongest tremor in recent times. Experts described the 5.7-magnitude quake as a warning of a larger event in the future. The country was shaken again the following day, on November 22, by three more tremors. An international study has found that a major earthquake in Bangladesh could put $344 billion worth of assets at risk. Replacing vulnerable buildings across the country alone could cost $356 billion, or 77 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. Analysts said Bangladesh could face significant human and economic losses if high-risk structures are not identified and reinforced.
In 2023, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM) in Italy released an interim substantive report titled “Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh.” The stuudy was conducted under the oversight of the United Nations Resident Coordinator’s Office, with support from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, various government agencies, and university researchers. The report highlighted major vulnerabilities stemming from active fault zones in and around Bangladesh. One of its central goals was to develop a detailed, publicly accessible earthquake-risk model at the district and upazila levels and to assess the current state of risk. It found that most building designs and construction methods in the country are not earthquake-resistant, that non-engineered structures are widespread, that building codes are often ignored, and that loose, liquefiable soils common in river deltas significantly increase seismic hazard.
The study used the Global Earthquake Model’s methodology to assess Bangladesh’s exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. For exposure, it examined the geographic distribution and value of residential, commercial, and industrial assets. The analysis counted 29 million buildings across seven regions. The value of assets exposed to earthquake risk was estimated at up to $344 billion, equivalent to 74 percent of Bangladesh’s GDP for FY 2024–25. The cost of replacing these assets to protect them from earthquake damage was estimated at $356 billion. Dhaka and Chattogram would face the highest exposure and replacement costs. In Dhaka, replacing 9 million buildings would require $149 billion, and in Chattogram, replacing 5 million buildings would cost $62 billion. Rajshahi would need $42 billion to replace 4 million buildings, while Khulna would need $34 billion for 3 million buildings. Rangpur would require $34 billion to replace 4 million buildings. In Barisal and Sylhet, replacing 2 million buildings in each region would cost $17 billion per region.
The report also detailed the types of materials used in buildings across the country. Although concrete structures make up a smaller share of the total, they would account for the highest replacement cost, at 28 percent.
To assess the level of danger, the report analyzed how strong and how frequent tremors could be across different parts of Bangladesh. It found that the highest seismic hazard is concentrated in the northern and eastern regions, particularly near active fault lines.
According to the GEM Foundation’s research, vulnerable assets in the Dhaka region are valued between $69.8 billion and $167.9 billion. In Chattogram, the value ranges from $47.8 billion to $69.8 billion. Rajshahi’s vulnerable assets are valued between $39.1 billion and $47.8 billion. In both Rangpur and Khulna, the range is $19.4 billion to $39.1 billion. In Sylhet and Barisal, the value of exposed assets falls between $18.9 billion and $19.4 billion.
A technical panel was formed to prepare the study, drawing members from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, the Ministry of Housing and Public Works, the University of Dhaka’s Department of Geology and its Department of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, the civil engineering and urban and regional planning departments at BUET, the Geological Survey of Bangladesh, the Fire Service and Civil Defence, the Center for Urban Studies, UNDP, the Department of Disaster Management, and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Two members of the panel were Dr. Syed Humayun Akhter, a professor in the Department of Geology at the University of Dhaka, and Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a professor in BUET’s Department of Civil Engineering.
KM Abdul Wadud, an additional secretary in the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief overseeing disaster management, RM, and PR units, said the findings of the study were accurate. “There is no forecast for earthquakes,” he told Bonik Barta. “So preparedness is what matters. The main task is to construct buildings in line with the building code. After the Rana Plaza collapse, experts proposed color-coding buildings in Dhaka, Chattogram, and Sylhet based on risk. They identified the structures and recommended red for the most vulnerable buildings, yellow for those with lower risk, and green for structures built according to code. The list was never published. I believe it should be made public now. It would increase public awareness. High-risk buildings must be retrofitted and repaired. At the same time, RAJUK’s regulatory work should not be relaxed. We will ask RAJUK to move forward on this.”
Many experts have pointed to retrofitting as a way to reduce financial losses from earthquakes, especially for structurally weak buildings. After the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Savar, specialists carried out a nationwide effort to identify vulnerable structures. Retrofitting has been promoted as a practical solution that avoids demolition. When done properly, it can extend a building’s lifespan by 50 years or more.
Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a professor in the civil engineering department at BUET, said, “Through a modeling exercise, we offered a forecast for buildings across seven regions of the country. But to understand the real picture, each building’s sample needs individual testing in a lab. In Dhaka, this kind of inspection is urgently needed. The government would not have to spend anything. RAJUK could issue a notice requiring owners of faulty buildings to complete retrofitting and submit certificates. Otherwise, action would be taken against the building. That would compel everyone to do it.”
Referring to reports of cracks in buildings across Dhaka after Friday’s earthquake, he said, “This kind of damage is inevitable.” He recalled the collapse of Rana Plaza in 2013 to underline how devastating the failure of a large building can be, and argued that the government needs to take steps now.
Experts said the damage seen in Dhaka after Friday’s 5.7 magnitude earthquake would increase many times if a quake of magnitude 7 struck. They warned that many buildings could collapse and large numbers of people could be killed or injured. If such an earthquake occurred within 100 kilometers of Dhaka, between two hundred thousand and three hundred thousand people could be affected, and up to 35 percent of the city’s buildings could fail.
Bangladesh has a large number of vulnerable structures. Retrofitting them to withstand earthquakes is expensive. Most individual owners do not have the means to cover the cost. Even so, specialists believe that government buildings and major industrial facilities could be strengthened through retrofitting.
Dr. Syed Humayun Akhter, a former professor in the geology department at the University of Dhaka, said, “We spend a lot of time discussing how to conduct rescue operations after an earthquake, how much those operations will cost, and what technology will be used. But replacing or demolishing buildings remains mostly theoretical. Imagine someone is told that his ancestral home is unsafe after an inspection. Will he tear it down? He may not have the money to build a new structure. Yes, people with resources can construct new buildings. But how many such people exist in Bangladesh?”
He offered suggestions on reducing earthquake damage at little or no cost. “We need to increase public awareness. Now everyone has a smartphone. An engaging game could help teach people what to do. I would say the government should prioritize awareness programs first.”
Md Mahmudul Hasan, managing director of the real estate firm Varieds Builders, told Bonik Barta, “Retrofitting is widely used and popular in developed countries. The Empire State Building in the United States is one of the most notable examples. While the concept is not widely known in Bangladesh, it is not entirely new. The work has been taking place here for a long time.”
Experts have found fully vulnerable, partially vulnerable, and repairable buildings across Dhaka. They say that while demolishing high-risk structures may seem reasonable in theory, it is not entirely practical. They pointed to the enormous volume of concrete waste that would be produced and the long time it would take to knock down hundreds of unsafe buildings. For this reason, they argue that the focus should be on how to make these buildings safe rather than demolishing them.
They also said buildings that cannot be made secure through retrofitting, or would cost more to fix than rebuild, must ultimately be torn down. In such cases, they suggested that authorities could consider offering compensation to owners.