The previous government inflated the country's GDP figures to exaggerate its transition from LDC status and development. Officially, the GDP figure has been exaggerated by at least 100 billion dollars, allowing the government to borrow more from abroad while keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio much lower.

Many questions have been raised about government statistics over the last two and a half decades. Economists and observers, both domestic and foreign, have disagreed with the government's statements on GDP growth. In this context, Bonik Barta spoke with economists, private organizations, and statistics experts to understand the real size of the country's GDP.

They all questioned the truth of the government's claim of 459 billion dollars for Bangladesh's GDP. The experts provided various opinions about the actual size of the economy. However, they all agreed it is unlikely to exceed 300 to 350 billion dollars.

Analysts say that while the previous government inflated the size and growth of GDP, it showed a lower inflation rate. A proposal was made to form a data commission to correct these questionable statistics, but it has not yet been implemented. As a result, there have been significant flaws in managing various aspects of the economy, including demand and market control, due to a lack of accurate data. In this situation, it has become essential for the government to take steps to determine the actual size of GDP according to current needs. At the same time, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) must take a tougher stance to ensure transparency and accuracy in its data.

In 2022, the World Bank published a report titled "Country Economic Memorandum: Change of Fabric." It analyzed 30 years of statistics from 130 countries. The report showed that, from 2009 to 2019, while the country's average growth rate was said to be 7 percent, the actual rate was 4.2 percent. This means the government inflated the average growth rate by 2.8 percentage points over the 10-year period.

The publication of this report put significant pressure on the multilateral organization at the time. Dr Zahid Hussain, the former chief economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office, prepared the report. He told Bonik Barta, "From 2009 to 2019, 2.8 percentage points inflated the growth rate. If this extra growth is removed from the 460 billion dollar GDP, the actual size is 322 billion dollars. In reality, we were not the fastest-growing economy."

He said that calculating GDP is quite complex. "Inflation rates must be considered. Exchange rates must be factored in. Per capita income needs to be calculated. Population counts are also involved. However, there are questions regarding the government's statistics on these matters. Moreover, while past growth was inflated, inflation was also reduced. The question now is, how much was it reduced or inflated? Calculating this is quite complicated. Furthermore, it will not be accepted if the government does not calculate it. International organizations work with government statistics. Therefore, the government itself must calculate the actual size of the GDP."

Significant changes will occur in important economic indicators if the actual GDP size is determined. For example, if Bangladesh's GDP is 350 billion dollars in the fiscal year 2023-24, the ratio of foreign debt to GDP will increase to 29.65 percent, compared to the current ratio of 22.6 percent. For total debt, this ratio will rise from 36.30 percent to 44.57 percent (as of the end of the 2023-24 fiscal year, the government's total domestic and foreign debt was nearly 156 billion dollars). Per capita GDP will drop from the government's calculated 2,675 to around 2,040 dollars.

According to the World Bank, Bangladesh lags behind other competing economies regarding investment, exports, human resource development, foreign investment, and the business environment. If the economy had expanded as claimed, it should not have fallen behind in these indicators. Even satellite imagery analysis of light patterns has not shown any signs of economic expansion.

A key method for determining GDP growth is the "CG model." One of the few experts in this complex model is Professor Dr. Bazlul Haque Khondker from Dhaka University. He was also involved in creating various statistics during the previous government. He believes that the country's GDP size has been inflated. However, he tried to create a draft statistic to determine how much it had been inflated. Despite working on it for several days, his team of experts has not concluded.

When asked about this, the professor told Bonik Barta, "The previous government showed a nominal growth rate of 13-14 percent annually. But by 2023-24, this might be around 10-11 percent. So, the nominal GDP growth is 3-4 percentage points higher. It has been shown like this since 2013. So, a gap of 400 billion dollars may have been created. This could bring the GDP size down to below 400 billion dollars. Some say 300 billion dollars. But I don't think it's that low."

On the other hand, according to City Bank Capital Resources, Bangladesh's actual GDP for the fiscal year 2023-24 was approximately 300 billion dollars. The bank's report, Macro Economic Outlook 2025, mentions that this GDP estimate was made by comparing economic output to electricity consumption in the region.

The institution raised questions about the GDP-related statistics published by the Bangladesh government under the Awami League. It asked how Bangladesh could show 50-60 percent more economic output per unit of electricity consumption compared to India, Pakistan, or China. Bangladesh's GDP calculations need to be reassessed.

According to City Bank Capital, Bangladesh's debt-to-GDP ratio for fiscal year 2023-24 is slightly over 36 percent. However, if the GDP is recalculated, this ratio could reach 55 percent (assuming GDP is 300 billion dollars).

After the interim government took over, several reform commissions and a white paper committee were formed to assess the country's financial sector. Renowned economists from the country worked on the committee, which published a report after three months. The report accused the previous government of fabricating development narratives through statistical manipulation.

It stated that although growth was inflated from 2010 to 2019, there was no explanation of the basis for this growth. Even in one model, while the country's growth started to decline after 2013, the government continued to announce rising growth rates. Over time, the gap between the presented data on growth and reality only widened.

Efforts were made to contact the chief economist of the white paper committee, Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, for comments on this matter. However, since he was abroad, his statement was not immediately available. Another important committee member, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Bonik Barta, "It cannot be stated like this without calculations. However, the GDP size could be between 300-350 billion dollars. If we calculate per capita income at 1,900 dollars, this is what we get."

Dr. Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), believes that to determine the actual GDP size, it must now be done by BBS. He told Bonik Barta, "For the past 10 years, growth may have been inflated. If we exclude that, we can base the calculation on a year from 10 years ago. Now, we can capture the growth. However, a new household-based income-expenditure survey needs to be conducted to determine the GDP size. This has to be done by BBS."

In the past, there was a tendency to inflate export data as well. As questions began to arise about this, last year, Bangladesh Bank removed 13.80 billion dollars from the EPB's export data. Similarly, more than 972.8 billion discrepancies appeared in the revenue collection data from NBR and CGA. Due to these inconsistencies in the 2023-24 fiscal year's revenue earnings, questions arose, and NBR changed its accounting method.

The economic survey 2024, published by BBS on Wednesday, also states that there has been little industrialization in the country in the past decade. Despite large investments and big projects undertaken by the government, their benefits have not been seen in the economy. From 2001 to 2013, the country saw a 100 percent expansion in industry, but from 2013 to 2023, the growth in the industrial sector was only 15 percent. In other words, industrialization stagnated in the last decade.

However, while the industrial sector stagnated, the contribution of the service sector to the economy has been presented as the largest from the past. For the fiscal year 2023-24, the service sector's contribution to GDP is shown as 52.72 percent. In terms of money, the size of this sector is over BDT 25 trillion. Many economists and experts believe that calculating the actual size of the service sector is difficult. Taking advantage of this, the sector has been inflated to show a larger GDP size.

Riti Ibrahim, the former secretary of the Statistics Department said, the size of GDP in Bangladesh has become a political number. She told Bonik Barta, "The way the government wants, BBS determines the GDP number in that way. It is essentially an expression of the government's will. The true picture of the economy does not come out here. Per capita income is shown to be much higher. But in the household income-expenditure survey, we see that people's income is much lower."

In 2014, statistical inconsistencies gained greater visibility following the appointment of AHM Mustafa Kamal as planning minister. GDP, inflation, and various other government figures were formulated with skepticism. This trend persisted until the conclusion of the earlier administration's term. Nonetheless, the creators of these false statistics were compensated by the previous administration in multiple ways. It is claimed that data manipulation enabled AHM Mustafa Kamal to move from the planning ministry to the finance ministry.

As per official statistics, the nation's average growth rate had remained above 7 percent for nearly ten years, exceeding the growth rates of nearly all developing nations, such as Vietnam, Thailand, China, and India. Consequently, Bangladesh was awarded the title of 'Asian Tiger'. Nevertheless, despite the growth, employment and investment did not rise correspondingly. The growth of the industry was likewise not as apparent. Additionally, several times, global entities such as the World Bank and ADB have questioned the nation's development. A World Bank report indicated that from 2015 to 2019, there was an average growth rate exceeding 3.5 percent.

Since 2014, there has been a rise in inquiries regarding the quality of BBS data. The World Bank releases a score derived from the statistical outcomes of various nations. The list is compiled taking into account 25 indicators. In 2014, Bangladesh achieved an overall score of 80 out of 100 on the Statistical Capacity Indicator, while the methodological score was 70. Nonetheless, both scores began to decrease following that point. In 2018, the total score fell swiftly to 62. In 2020, it declined more to 60, whereas the average score for South Asia was 69. During this time, Bangladesh experienced the largest drop in the methodology score. Starting from a score of 70 in 2014, it fell by over half to 30 in 2020.

Lately, following the collapse of the Awami League administration, concerns about statistical manipulation have emerged prominently. The temporary administration has also made claims of falsified data. Even the top advisor has charged the government with exaggerating the nation's economic scale. Additionally, the BBS's "User Satisfaction Survey-2024" reveals that over a third of users lack trust in the agency's data. The greatest skepticism revolves around inflation figures. After this, 26 percent of individuals voiced skepticism regarding the National Accounts statistics (employed for determining GDP).

When contacted about this, Shafiqul Alam, the press secretary of the chief advisor, told Bonik Barta, "There have already been discussions about GDP and other statistics from various sources. However, the relevant department or planning advisor can better explain what the next steps will be."

Efforts were made to contact the planning adviser for a statement, but his response could not be obtained.

Mizanur Rahman, BBS Director General, told Bonik Barta last week, "We have not received any instructions from the government regarding the correction of GDP or statistical data. If we receive any instructions, it will be considered. However, we are meeting with those who speak about inflation and GDP. We are sharing our methodological issues through workshops."