Green Dialogue

True cost of climate change would lower GDP growth further: Fahmida Khatun

The CPD distinguished fellow says heatwaves are already cutting productivity and pushing up health costs, and that adaptation finance needs to increase to protect vulnerable countries like Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s GDP growth could be lower still if the true cost of environmental crises and climate change were fully included in calculations of economic growth, Dr Fahmida Khatun, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said on Thursday.

Speaking at the Green Dialogue on climate change and economic realignment, organised by Bonik Barta at the Pan Pacific Sonargaon in Dhaka, Khatun said climate change affects health, erodes productivity and damages every major sector including agriculture, industry and services. The growth figures cited until now do not fully capture those costs, she stressed.

Khatun said Bangladesh is among the countries most exposed to climate change, and the government has adopted policies and plans accordingly, because the issue is no longer solely environmental but a central economic one.

Citing studies by international bodies, she said heatwaves reduce people’s capacity to work and their productivity while raising health spending, cutting output and inflicting significant damage on the economy. Climate change must therefore be viewed through a macroeconomic lens, she said.

The CPD distinguished fellow noted that Bangladesh is not principally responsible for the crisis. Developed countries built their economies through industrialisation, with much of that activity long reliant on carbon and fossil fuels, and the resulting emissions are now borne by countries like Bangladesh.

Even so, she said, Bangladesh has work of its own to do. There is a stark disparity between countries that have historically emitted more carbon and those that are relatively more affected, which makes adaptation essential: adjusting to changed conditions, adapting livelihoods to natural disasters and putting alternative arrangements in place to secure food supplies when farm output falters. Scientists have developed climate-tolerant crop varieties, but such measures demand substantial funding.

On international climate finance, Khatun said developed countries make pledges at forums such as the UN climate summits, but delivery remains an open question. A further problem, she noted, is that estimates and discussions suggest roughly 65 percent of climate finance is allocated to mitigation and 35 percent to adaptation.

“For a densely populated and climate-vulnerable country like Bangladesh, adaptation is critical,” she said.

A major natural disaster can affect vast numbers of people, she added, making it urgent to expand adaptation financing so that losses can be absorbed, lives and livelihoods protected and the economy kept stable.

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