In the past, the population growth rate in Bangladesh had been steadily slowing down, but a change in the trend has been observed since the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the population growth rate in Bangladesh has once again started to rise.
According to a review of statistics by the Population Division under the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the country's population growth rate had been declining until 2021. However, it has started to increase again since then. In 2019, the growth rate was 0.85 percent, which dropped to 0.82 percent by 2021. But in the following year, it rose to 1.03 percent. In 2023, it further increased to 1.23 percent. The projected growth rate for 2024 is 1.22 percent. According to the BBS, the average annual population growth rate in Bangladesh between the two censuses, from 2011 to 2022, was 1.12 percent. As a result, the current annual growth rate has surpassed the average growth rate between the two censuses.
Currently, the growth rate of the female population in the country is comparatively higher than that of the male population. By the end of 2023, the number of women was 3.22 million, higher than that of men. It is now estimated that this gap has increased to nearly 4 million. Women's participation in the workforce has also increased. However, the existing challenges to women's participation in the economy of Bangladesh have not yet been overcome. Experts warn that if these obstacles are not removed, it will become even more difficult for Bangladesh to harness the demographic dividend by utilizing the country's female-majority workforce in the coming years.
Frequent questions have been raised regarding the population data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Economists and experts from various sectors in the country have consistently raised objections to the statistics released by the agency. In particular, the economic and demographic data published by the BBS has faced the most criticism over the past decade. There has been a significant gap between the BBS's statistics and the data from other relevant government agencies involved in policy-making in these sectors.
Experts argue that demographic statistics containing errors or incomplete data impact nearly every aspect of the economy, from per capita income to determining the actual demand for products in the market. One of the main reasons for the current rise in commodity prices in the market is the failure to ensure the production and supply of essential agricultural products to meet real demand. Without accurate population data, assessing or addressing these issues effectively becomes impossible.
Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, the Director General of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), believes that the questions about the demographic statistics are merely based on assumptions. He told Bonik Barta, "There is no need to create new confusion about the population. These claims are coming from mental assumptions. We conducted a population census in 2022, where everyone was counted, and the population was calculated. But in changing times, many are saying the number is much higher. This is purely an assumption."
Bangladesh has the highest proportion of youth in its population. According to relevant sources, Bangladesh is in a very favorable position to harness the demographic dividend. However, despite this youth-driven population and demographic advantage, Bangladesh has not converted it into a tangible dividend.
Dr.Fahmida Khatun, economist and Executive Director of the think tank Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said, "Currently, the highest proportion of young people in our country is 26 years old. Although young people are increasing, they are not provided employment opportunities. As a result, they cannot do anything for themselves and are not getting the chance to contribute to the economy. However, after 2035 to 2040, a youth-driven Bangladesh will no longer exist. At that point, the working-age population will not be utilized effectively. Therefore, to take advantage of demographic benefits or the demographic dividend, it is necessary to train and financially support the youth to integrate them into the workforce now."
The working-age population's participation rate in the country's labor market is currently on the decline. According to the global economic database CEIC Data, in 2021, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) of the working-age population in the country was 58.79 percent. By the end of 2023, this had decreased to 58.16 percent. Economists warn that if the participation of young people in the labor market is not increased, Bangladesh will not be able to achieve the demographic dividend.
Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, the Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Administration) of Dhaka University and Professor of the Department of Economics, believes that significant investments and policy changes are required to harness the youth-driven workforce. She told Bonik Barta, "We are in a demographic advantage. However, to turn this into a dividend, having a favorable age structure alone is not enough. The demographic, particularly the young workforce, must also be educated, skilled, and employable. There has been a lot of discussion about the demographic dividend. Still, in terms of youth, the unemployment rate, their inclusion in the labor force, and access to education and training—while we are in a favorable position—we have not fully utilized it. In terms of policy, there is a need to create employment for this youth force. Work needs to be done in this regard. For youth in rural areas and urban centers, efforts should be made to increase job opportunities and enhance skills. More recruitment is needed in these areas. In our current budget, the allocation for education and healthcare is extremely insufficient. The budget for the Ministry of Youth and Employment is also very low. Significant changes are needed in these areas. Therefore, we need new directions and policies. Government policies and budget allocation need to be restructured to focus on education and employment."
Currently, the growth rate of the female population in the country is comparatively higher than that of the male population. By the end of 2023, the number of women in the country was 88.07 million, while the number of men was 84.85 million. As a result, by the end of 2023, there were 3.22 million more women than men. Although no official data has been released on the current gender ratio, experts reviewing various mathematical models believe this gap has widened. It is estimated that the gap is now close to 4 million.
Both women and men in Bangladesh continue to demonstrate equal skills and intelligence in the workforce. However, the existing challenges to women's economic participation have not yet been overcome. Despite efforts, there has been little progress in eliminating various mental and environmental barriers and ensuring a safe working environment for women. Experts warn that if these obstacles are not removed, it will become even more difficult for Bangladesh to harness the demographic dividend by leveraging its female-majority workforce in the coming years.
Experts believe that if the challenges to women's participation in the economy are not addressed in the coming years, it will become even more difficult for Bangladesh to achieve the demographic dividend. Professor Mohammad Bellal Hossain of the Department of Population Sciences at Dhaka University told Bonik Barta, "In the current state of the labor market, there are limited formal opportunities for educated workers. As a result, the lack of gender advantages for graduates, especially tertiary-level educated women, is one of the reasons for women's lag in the labor market. Society is still not ready to see women in certain roles. While there are many women in medical fields, their participation in engineering is very low. Families and society tend to steer women into certain professions. Society is not yet ready to consider women suitable for all professions. Additionally, many women cannot enter the labor market because they do not receive the institutional support they need. For example, most institutions have not yet established day-care services for children. Even where such services exist, they are available only during office hours. If we do not bring about these mental shifts, it will become a serious concern for society and the economy. However, many changes are happening in Bangladesh now. There is a significant difference in mentality compared to 20 years ago, though the pace is still very slow."
Regarding questioning government statistics, he said, "A lack of trust has emerged in every sector. The role and importance of data in policymaking are still not fully understood. How can we make the right decisions if we do not have accurate statistics? Our investment in data collection has also not been made properly. This is another important issue."