Mymensingh is one of the food surplus regions in the country. At least 10 percent of Bangladesh's food demand is met here. In the 2023-24 fiscal year, food production in Mymensingh Jamalpur, Sherpur, and Netrokona totaled 4.48895 million tons. In contrast, the demand in the region was only 1.807233 million tons. The remaining approximately 2.681717 million tons of surplus food was used to meet the capital's and surrounding districts' demand. However, recent floods have destroyed aman rice on over a hundred thousand hectares of land in this region, and other crops have also suffered damage. The country's eastern region has experienced the most devastating floods in three decades, resulting in significant crop losses, including aman rice. Agriculture experts are concerned that a deficit in crop production in these food surplus areas due to the recent floods will impact overall food security.
Approximately 40 percent of the total rice produced in the country comes from aman rice. The highest production, about 55 percent, comes from the boro season, while the remaining amount is sourced from aus rice. This year, aman rice has suffered significant damage due to the floods. Water has flooded many fields, causing delays in the emergence of rice panicles, which in turn is extending the time required for rice production. This situation may also delay the planting of boro rice. Additionally, farmers' seeds of boro rice were damaged by the floods. In light of these circumstances in surplus-producing regions, experts are warning that if the government does not take timely action, a food crisis may arise in the country.
The Sherpur district has suffered the most damage in this year's floods in the Mymensingh region. This year, 95,790 hectares of land in this border district were planted with ropa aman rice. Of this, 37,155 hectares were affected by the floods caused by upstream surges and rainfall. In Netrokona district, aman rice was cultivated on 135,900 hectares across 10 upazilas. Among these, 24,667 hectares of aman fields and 177 hectares of vegetable land were submerged in floodwaters. The most severely affected areas in the district include the border and low-lying regions of Kalmakanda, Durgapur, Barhatta, Purbadhala, Mohongonj, Atpara, and Madan. This region is entirely agricultural-based. In Mymensingh, the most damage occurred in Dhobaura upazila, where 10,560 hectares of ropa aman land were destroyed. In Haluaghat, 10,310 hectares of aman land were lost, and in Fulpur upazila, 3,405 hectares of aman rice were damaged.
A similar situation has arisen in the southern district of Noakhali. According to the Department of Agricultural Extension, aman rice production in the district is expected to decrease by 35 percent this year compared to the target. This could negatively impact the rice market. Before the disaster, the agricultural department had set a target for cultivating transplanted aman rice on 174,145 hectares of land in Noakhali, with a production target of 713,993 tons of rice. The target for rice production from this was set at 475,995 tons.
According to post-disaster assessments by the agricultural department, transplanted aman rice has been cultivated on 123,727 hectares of land. Based on this post-disaster cultivation, the rice production target has been revised to 507,280 tons. This year, rice production in Noakhali could be around 338,186 tons. However, in areas where planting has been delayed and where the condition of rice seedlings is relatively poor, production may be even lower.
Mira Rani Das, Deputy Director of the District Agricultural Extension Department, told Bonik Barta, "Since rice production will be lower, rice production will also decrease. Farmers in areas severely affected by aman rice will cultivate early boro rice if the weather is favorable. This will help compensate for the losses from aman rice. Therefore, assistance in the form of early boro seeds and other materials has already been provided to the affected aman farmers."
Various international organizations' observations regarding the country's current post-flood food situation indicate that effective measures are urgently needed to address the deficit in crop production in surplus regions. A recent regular report from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) highlights that the recent floods have put pressure on agriculture and the overall economy. As a result, three out of ten people, or 30 percent, cannot secure necessary food supplies. This rate is nearly 36 percent for low-income individuals. About 29 percent of people are attempting to adapt to the current situation by reducing food expenditures, while 71 percent are coping by adjusting their overall livelihood expenses.
Public health experts are expressing concern that the country's ongoing food insecurity may lead to an increase in malnutrition and disease. They state that inadequate food intake hampers children's physical and mental development, exacerbating malnutrition. Even in adults, it reduces immunity, leading to a rise in various diseases.
Dr. Tofazzal Islam, Professor and founding director of the Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, told Bonik Barta, "We need to closely monitor how much crop loss occurred on how much land due to the floods and which crops were affected. For that, we need to prepare in advance. We must work on how to convert agricultural statistics into live data. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) provides statistics that are not accurate. We could obtain accurate information if we had precise statistics, enabling us to provide appropriate policy support. Necessary initiatives could be taken regarding the potential food security deficit. However, this is impossible due to the lack of accurate information."
Professor Dr. Tofazzal Islam stated that agriculture in 10 country districts has been severely affected by the recent floods, saying, "Our agriculture is now running from one season to the next. As a result, the soil here is losing its fertility. When soil health deteriorates, the health of all living organisms will also suffer. The existing technologies are not functioning effectively. There are no accurate statistics on the rate at which land is decreasing. Statistics have been deliberately minimized. This has caused us harm. When there is a shortage in the market, there will be nothing we can do."
According to a report published by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), the districts with the highest rice surplus in the country include Dinajpur, Thakurgaon, Panchagarh, Lalmonirhat, Jhenaidah, Joypurhat, Sherpur, Naogaon, Bogura, Netrokona, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Kishoreganj, and Bhola. These districts have a surplus of rice ranging from 80 to 183 percent. In Kurigram, Jamalpur, Nilphamari, Rangpur, Magura, Jessore, Narail, Gopalganj, and Patuakhali, the surplus ranges from 51 to 77 percent. In Gaibandha, Natore, Tangail, Moulvibazar, Mymensingh, Meherpur, Satkhira, Bagerhat, and Chuadanga, the surplus ranges from 22 to 48 percent. In Rajshahi, Sirajganj, Kushtia, Lakshmipur, Feni, Noakhali, and Bandarban, the surplus is between 1 to 18 percent. This means that these districts do not face a shortage of food grains.
Dhaka, Chattogram, Gazipur, Narayanganj, Munshiganj, and Rangamati are the districts facing a rice deficit, with deficits ranging from 46 to 91 percent. Additionally, Manikganj, Narsingdi, Faridpur, Rajbari, Shariatpur, Chandpur, and Madaripur have deficits ranging from 19 to 40 percent.
When asked about the situation, Dr. Mohammad Emdad Ullah Mian, Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, told Bonik Barta, "We have suffered significant crop losses due to the floods. We have estimated the damage. We are trying to compensate for the losses in aman rice through aus cultivation. We are encouraging our farmers to grow aus rice and raising public awareness as well. Even after these efforts, we expect a deficit of 800,000 to 900,000 tons in our crops. This deficit will be filled through imports. The government has already recommended the withdrawal of tariffs on rice imports. We know the potential damage from the floods and are taking the necessary steps to address it."
The Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission has recommended the complete withdrawal of applicable import duties on rice to increase supply and stabilize prices in the local market due to disruptions in rice production caused by floods. In a letter signed by AKM Maksudur Arefin, the Joint Chief of the Tariff Commission, addressed to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) on Tuesday (October 29), it was stated that the recent natural disaster has severely hampered rice production, raising concerns about negative impacts on rice supply during the upcoming production season.
The letter also mentions that if import duties on rice are withdrawn, local producers and farmers will not be harmed. The demand for rice in the country is approximately 37 to 39 million tons, most of which is produced domestically. However, in the past month, fine, medium, and coarse rice prices have increased by 0 percent, 1.74 percent, and 1.90 percent, respectively. Over the past year, the prices of these three types of rice have risen by 9.09 percent, 9.35 percent, and 7 percent, respectively.